Cryptocurrency research institution 10x Research founder Markus Thielen warned in a report on Monday that if the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin spot ETF this week is lower than expected, BTC could fall to $59,000.
Bitcoin has faced significant price corrections in recent days, quickly dropping from the $67,000 level on the morning of the 19th to a low of $64,628. As of the time of writing, it has temporarily returned to $65,000 without showing any significant bullish rally.
10x Research: Bitcoin may fall to $59,000
Regarding the recent price corrections of BTC, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, warned in a report that “if the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin spot ETF this week is lower than expected, BTC could fall to $59,000.” According to Coindesk, the total inflow of funds into the US Bitcoin spot ETF last week (3/11~3/15) reached a historical high of $2.6 billion, but most of the net inflow occurred from Monday to Wednesday, pushing BTC to break the historical high of $73,000.
However, the spot ETF only recorded net inflows of $133-198 million on Thursday and Friday, and BTC subsequently fell below $65,000 over the weekend.
Source: Farside Investors
Markus Thielen stated in the report on Monday that the “real test” for Bitcoin will come on Monday and Tuesday, and if the inflow of funds into the ETF is disappointing, the correction of Bitcoin may continue, possibly falling to $59,000, indicating a further drop of over 10% from the current price.
The report also added that despite the possibility of a deeper adjustment, the cryptocurrency bull market is not over yet, and “we can still expect Bitcoin to rise significantly in the coming months, as the bull market may continue. If BTC recovers to above $70,000, a rebound may open the door for a substantial price increase.”
Further reading:
Standard Chartered: BTC may reach $150,000 by the end of the year, and stabilize at $200,000 next year. What are the reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin?
Bloomberg Analyst: Retail investors are the main drivers of Bitcoin spot ETF demand.
On the other hand, it is worth noting that Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, told Coindesk that most of the demand for Bitcoin spot ETF currently comes from retail investors, not institutional investors. He pointed out, “There may be some advisors, but to a large extent, retail investors are definitely an important factor based on trading volume.”
According to the data provided by Balchunas, the Bitcoin spot ETF “IBIT” issued by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management giant, has an average of 250,000 transactions per day, with an average transaction size of 326 shares, about $13,000. Additionally, the issuer confirmed to him that the main demand is driven by retail investors.
BlackRock declined to comment on this. BlackRock’s IBIT has attracted over $14 billion in assets in just two months since its listing in mid-January, making it the biggest winner among Bitcoin spot ETFs.
If the current inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETF is mainly from retail investors, the recent significant price correction of BTC may cause these retail investors to sell, potentially pushing the Bitcoin price further down.
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