Standard Chartered Bank stated that it currently has 80% to 90% confidence that the SEC will approve the Ethereum spot ETF this week, bringing in up to $45 billion in capital inflows for ETH within the first year. Additionally, if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved as scheduled, Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high over the weekend.
With the sudden reversal of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s position on the Ethereum spot ETF, six applicants, including VanEck, Fidelity, Franklin, Ark Invest, Grayscale, and Invesco Galaxy, have submitted revised 19b-4 documents. This shift has significantly increased market expectations for the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF by the 23rd.
Various positive news continues to drive up the price of ETH.
Geoff Kendrick, the head of forex research and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, revised his April prediction and now expresses 80% to 90% confidence that the SEC will approve the Ethereum spot ETF this week. He further predicts the following capital inflows after approval:
Kendrick also predicts that by 2024, the price ratio between Ether and Bitcoin will remain at 5.4%. If BTC reaches $150,000 by the end of the year, the price of Ether could reach $8,000.
In early May, Standard Chartered Bank released a research report indicating that Bitcoin will benefit from the U.S. debt problem and Trump’s election, further pushing up its price. The report reiterates that BTC will reach $150,000 by the end of the year and will rise further to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Standard Chartered Bank further states that if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved as expected on the 23rd, this will continue to boost the price of Ether and benefit Bitcoin as well, as the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF will further legitimize the cryptocurrency industry. Kendrick states:
Kendrick points out that the recent market conditions have been more optimistic, with increased capital inflows into the Bitcoin spot ETF, reaching a historical high of $13.17 billion in cumulative net inflows.
Data from SoSo Value shows that the net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF on the 21st was $306 million, with continuous net inflows for 7 days. Grayscale’s GBTC had zero net outflows, and BlackRock’s ETF IBIT had a net inflow of $290 million. The total assets under management of the Bitcoin spot ETF reached $58.91 billion.
However, even if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it remains to be seen whether it will immediately stimulate the rise in the prices of Bitcoin and Ether. Comparing it with the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the situation may not be as good. At that time, after the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved on January 11, Bitcoin began to be affected by factors such as positive news landing (sell the news) and a large net outflow from GBTC, causing it to decline and only start to rise again at the end of January.
Furthermore, it is currently widely expected that the 19b-4 document (exchange rule change) of the Ethereum spot ETF, which is likely to be approved, will require the approval of S-1 (IPO registration statement) for the product to be listed (ETHE requires S-3 approval). The time gap between these two approvals may take several weeks to several months, so there is still a long way to go before we can see the anticipated $45 billion in capital inflows as predicted by Standard Chartered Bank.