The U.S. presidential election began on the 5th local time, with voting and ballot counting. Currently, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is temporarily leading. However, the results from the crucial seven swing states have not yet been concluded, and the election results might not be known until the evening of the 6th or the daytime of the 7th Taiwan time at the earliest.
(Previous context:
First votes in the U.S. election! Midnight voting in a small town: Trump and Kamala Harris tied 3-3.
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(Background supplement:
Preparing for the U.S. election: How have the S&P 500 and Bitcoin historically performed after the past ten elections?
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The U.S. presidential election began on the 5th local time, with current Vice President Kamala Harris representing the Democratic Party, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Former U.S. President Donald Trump represents the Republican Party, running with Ohio Senator J.D. Vance.
17:50 Update》
According to the Associated Press’s real-time vote count data, as of 6 PM Taiwan time on the 6th, Trump is temporarily leading with 267 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris has secured 224 votes.
Trump currently has 267 votes, having secured 11 votes from Indiana, 8 from Kentucky, 4 from West Virginia, 7 from Oklahoma, 11 from Tennessee, 9 from Alabama, 6 from Mississippi, 30 from Florida, 9 from South Carolina, 6 from Arkansas, 3 from North Dakota, 3 from South Dakota, 3 from Wyoming, 8 from Louisiana, 4 from Nebraska, 17 from Ohio, 40 from Texas, 10 from Missouri, 6 from Utah, 4 from Montana, 6 from Kansas, 6 from Iowa, 4 from Idaho, 16 from North Carolina, 16 from Georgia, 1 from Maine, and 19 from Pennsylvania.
Kamala Harris has 224 votes, which include 3 from Vermont, 10 from Maryland, 7 from Connecticut, 11 from Massachusetts, 4 from Rhode Island, 14 from New Jersey, 19 from Illinois, 3 from Delaware, 28 from New York, 10 from Colorado, 3 from the District of Columbia, 1 from Maine, 54 from California, 12 from Washington, 8 from Oregon, 5 from New Mexico, 13 from Virginia, 4 from Hawaii, 1 from Nebraska, 4 from New Hampshire, and 10 from Minnesota.
The swing state vote counts are crucial.
The U.S. presidential election uses the Electoral College system, with a total of 538 electoral votes across the 50 states. A candidate must win 270 votes to be elected. Each state is allocated votes based on its population, and the winner takes all. This election is fiercely contested, and the outcome hinges on who can win the seven swing states.
The seven swing states are Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), Arizona (11 votes), and Nevada (6 votes).
Here are the closing times for voting in the seven swing states:
Georgia: 7 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (8 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
North Carolina: 7:30 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (8:30 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Pennsylvania: 8 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (9 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Arizona: 9 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (10 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Michigan: 9 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (10 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Nevada: 10 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (11 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
The closeness of the vote count in the swing states will affect when the election results are announced. Based on past voting records, the earliest swing states to have preliminary results might be Georgia and North Carolina. If Trump gains an advantage in the Southern swing states, Kamala Harris will need to rely on winning in the three slower-counting Blue Wall states, namely Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, to have a chance at victory. Voters may have to wait longer to know the final results.
Among all 50 states and one special administrative region, the earliest time for voting to end is 7 AM Taiwan time on the 6th, with unofficial results available immediately afterward. The latest to finish is Alaska, ending at 2 PM Taiwan time on the 6th, and counting usually takes several hours.
The Washington Post estimates that voters might have to wait until local time on the 6th, or Taiwan time on the evening of the 6th or daytime of the 7th, to know the final election results. In the 2020 election, results took four days to finalize, and this year’s results may also be delayed due to various factors.
Bitcoin and U.S. stocks surge.
As the U.S. presidential election officially unfolds, Bitcoin has seen a new wave of strong gains, surging to nearly $73,000 this morning. In the U.S. stock market, despite the uncertainties surrounding the election, investors seem optimistic about the economic outlook, with all four major indices rising at the close on the 5th:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 427.28 points or 1.02%, closing at 42,221.88 points.
The S&P 500 index increased by 70.07 points or 1.23%, closing at 5,782.76 points.
The Nasdaq index rose 259.19 points or 1.43%, closing at 18,439.17 points.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 83.84 points or 1.69%, closing at 5,057.83 points.
As the first batch of election results is gradually released, financial markets continue to experience significant volatility. The U.S. dollar index surged sharply in the short term, reaching 104, with a daily increase of 0.98%. The spot gold price briefly dipped below $2,740 before recovering, currently at $2,744, with a daily increase of 0.26%.
Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, commented that it is uncertain what the forex market trend is indicating, but all earlier declines in the dollar today have been erased. Over the past month, he has heard that the main reason for the dollar’s rise is a Republican victory. The current thought is that Trump and the Republicans will increase the deficit, cut taxes, and maintain high yields.
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