As the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves the Bitcoin spot ETF, it is a crucial moment for Polymarket, an illegal decentralized gaming platform, which shows a strong speculative sentiment towards this event. Data shows that the probability of the Bitcoin spot ETF being approved before January 15th is 85%, and the trading volume has also exceeded 2.5 million US dollars.
(Prior summary:
Taiwanese presidential election investigates “illegal online gambling platforms”! Prosecutors question multiple Polymarket bettors.)
(Background supplement:
Virtual currency intervention in the presidential election! Former spokesperson of the People First Party, Ma Zhiwei, received funding from overseas USDT and was arrested under the Anti-Infiltration Act.)
With the key window period for the approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approaching from January 8th to January 10th, cryptocurrency investors are all focused on the market trend. The illegal decentralized gaming platform Polymarket shows a probability of 85% that the Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved before January 15th.
Most users bet that the spot ETF will be approved before January 15th
Trading volume surpasses 2.5 million US dollars
It is understood that users can use their own funds on Polymarket to predict the outcome of specific events, similar to placing bets. The unique feature of Polymarket is that it adopts a price mechanism that does not require a bookmaker to set odds and operates more user-centric through order book trading.
The specific way to place bets on Polymarket is based on the concept of options. If a user purchases a positive option (currently priced at $0.85) and the spot ETF is approved before January 15th, the value of the option will become $1; if it is not approved, the value of the option will be zero. Of course, users also have the possibility to purchase reverse options.
With the high speculative sentiment in the market, the trading volume of this predicted event has reached the first place on the financial leaderboard and the fourth place overall, reaching 2.54 million US dollars.
Trading volume ranks fourth among all events on the platform
Taiwanese citizens’ bets may violate the law
It is worth noting that the Taiwanese presidential election has also become a target of the illegal platform Polymarket. There have been rumors in the community that several individuals have been summoned for investigation by prosecutors and investigators for participating in the Polymarket gambling platform.
Currently, after accessing the domain, it was found that the Criminal Investigation Bureau has blocked the website. Therefore, cryptocurrency users need to be vigilant and avoid engaging in illegal online gambling activities. The above data is only one reference for analyzing whether the spot ETF will be approved.
Taiwan’s Criminal Investigation Bureau blocks the website
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