JPMorgan’s latest report points out that the profit-taking situation of GBTC has basically occurred, implying that the downward pressure on Bitcoin may have gradually dissipated. However, analysts warn that if GBTC does not reduce its 1.5% fee, it may continue to experience capital outflows and lose market share.
(A summary of previous events:
Air raid alert! The US government will sell $114 million worth of Bitcoin, still holding over 210,000 BTC)
(Background information:
$4.5 billion! After GBTC converted to a spot ETF, Grayscale has transferred nearly 113,000 Bitcoins)
After the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, causing the Bitcoin price to approach $49,000, BTC has fallen by more than 20% in just two weeks.
The market generally attributes the main reasons to GBTC. Last week, JPMorgan estimated that the profit-taking of GBTC investors would result in a $3 billion outflow of funds (with an additional $5-10 billion outflow if management fees are not further reduced). Today, the cumulative outflow of funds from GBTC has reached $4.786 billion.
JPMorgan: GBTC’s profit-taking has basically ended, limited downward space for BTC
Regarding whether GBTC will further bring selling pressure, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the latest report:
BitMEX Research data shows that GBTC has gradually reduced its daily outflow amount after reaching a peak of $640 million on the 22nd, with an outflow of $394 million on the 25th.
(Source: BitMEX Research)
Loolonchain monitoring data indicates that on the 25th, Grayscale transferred an additional 9,434 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime, reducing a total of 103,134 Bitcoins since the 11th. It currently holds 510,682 Bitcoins, worth approximately $20.43 billion.
Currently, GBTC has experienced a 16.8% capital outflow. As for the future capital outflow rate of GBTC, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously predicted that it will be higher than 20% but not exceed 35%.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas holds the same view as JPMorgan analysts. He recently wrote, “GBTC’s trading volume has decreased again, which may be a sign of exhaustion in selling.” Bloomberg data shows that GBTC had a trading volume of $762 million on the 24th and 25th, marking a continuous decline for the fourth day.
GBTC may continue to experience capital outflows unless fees are reduced
At the same time, JPMorgan analysts warn that if GBTC’s 1.5% fee is not lowered soon, the fund may continue to experience capital outflows, and its market share will be lost to competitors. Analysts state:
(Relevant reports:
Data: Bitcoin short-sellers target price is $34,000
Cryptocurrency market morning report: Bitcoin approaches $40,000 mark, Ethereum surges to $2,260. Analyst: GBTC selling pressure may have exhausted
Grayscale GBTC saw nearly $4 billion outflows in eight days! Bloomberg analysts estimate an outflow rate of 20-35%)