JPMorgan’s latest report indicates that the profit-taking situation of GBTC has basically occurred, implying that the downward pressure on Bitcoin may have gradually subsided. However, analysts warn that if GBTC does not reduce its 1.5% fee, it may continue to experience capital outflows and lose market share.
(Previous summary:
Air raid alert! The US government will sell $114 million worth of Bitcoin, still holding over 210,000 BTC)
(Background:
$4.5 billion! After the conversion of GBTC into a spot ETF, Grayscale has transferred nearly 113,000 Bitcoins)
After the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, pushing the price of Bitcoin to nearly $49,000, BTC has dropped by more than 20% in just two weeks.
The market generally attributes the main reason to GBTC. Last week, JPMorgan estimated that the profit realization of GBTC investors would result in a capital outflow of $3 billion (with an additional $5-100 billion outflow if the management fee is not further reduced). As of yesterday, the cumulative outflow of GBTC funds has reached $4.786 billion.
JPMorgan: GBTC profit-taking has basically ended, limited further downside for BTC
Regarding whether GBTC will further bring selling pressure, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the latest report:
BitMEX Research data shows that after GBTC experienced the highest daily outflow of $640 million on the 22nd, the outflow amount gradually decreased for three consecutive days, with an outflow of $394 million yesterday (25th).
Source: BitMEX Research
Loolonchain monitoring data indicates that Grayscale transferred another 9,434 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime yesterday (25th), with a total reduction of 103,134 Bitcoins since the 11th. Currently, it still holds 510,682 Bitcoins, worth about $20.43 billion.
Currently, GBTC has experienced a 16.8% outflow of funds. As for the future outflow rate of GBTC, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously predicted that it would be higher than 20% but not exceed 35%.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, who holds the same view as JPMorgan analysts, recently wrote, “GBTC trading volume is declining again, which may be a sign of selling fatigue.” Bloomberg data shows that GBTC’s trading volume was $762 million on the 24th and 25th, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline.
Unless the fees are reduced, GBTC may continue to experience capital outflows
At the same time, JPMorgan analysts warn that if GBTC’s 1.5% fee is not reduced soon, the fund may continue to experience capital outflows, and its market share will be lost to competitors. Analysts stated:
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