Bitcoin is expected to undergo its fourth halving in April this year. Looking back at the previous three halvings, the price of Bitcoin has significantly increased. Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of Skybridge Capital, recently predicted that after this halving, Bitcoin will surge to at least $170,000 and could even reach $400,000 in the future.
Following the launch of the first Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States, another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is the upcoming fourth halving. According to the latest data from Bitcoin Block Half, there are approximately 82 days left until the halving, which is expected to occur on April 22nd this year. At that time, the Bitcoin reward for each block will decrease from the current 6.25 coins to 3.125 coins.
Regarding the price of Bitcoin after the halving, Anthony Scaramucci, during a podcast with Scott Melker on the 27th, stated that based on historical data, the price of Bitcoin on the halving day multiplied by four has been very close to its performance after 18 months. He pointed out that, based on conservative estimates, if the price of Bitcoin during the halving in April is $35,000, it could reach a peak of $170,000 after 18 months. If the halving price is $50,000, it could potentially reach $200,000, and if the halving price is $60,000, it could surge to $240,000.
Anthony Scaramucci also predicted that in the long term, the market value of Bitcoin will easily surpass half of the market value of gold, meaning the price of Bitcoin could reach $400,000 and the market value of Bitcoin could increase tenfold.
Looking back at the past, the price of Bitcoin has indeed significantly increased after each halving. However, the halving event does not immediately trigger a price surge and usually takes several months to a year and a half to ferment. The evidence supporting the impact of the halving event on the price trend of Bitcoin is not entirely clear, and it still requires coordination with overall monetary and fiscal policies.
In addition, Anthony Scaramucci praised BlackRock’s change in stance towards Bitcoin during the program. BlackRock, a major asset management company, submitted an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF to the SEC in June last year and was approved for listing earlier this month. Anthony Scaramucci previously revealed that he was the first external investor in BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF.
Before BlackRock showed interest in a Bitcoin ETF, its CEO Larry Fink had expressed skepticism towards Bitcoin multiple times. However, since BlackRock submitted the application for a Bitcoin spot ETF in June last year, Larry Fink’s statements have changed, and he even called himself a “firm believer.”
Anthony Scaramucci praised this change, stating that it is a significant development for the adoption of Bitcoin.