Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating between $42,600 and $43,500 over the past three days, while Ethereum (ETH) has been fluctuating between $2,280 and $2,330 with little volatility. It is worth noting that the outflow of funds from GBTC has significantly slowed down since the approval of the spot ETF application, with GBTC reducing a total of 140,825 BTC and the other 8 ETFs increasing by 175,479 BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the $42,000 mark on the 1st day, reaching a low of $41,884, but quickly rebounded to $42,000 on the 2nd day. Over the past three days, it has continued to fluctuate between $42,600 and $43,500 with no significant volatility, reaching $43,033 before the deadline, a 0.3% decrease in the past 24 hours.
BTC spot price on Binance. Source: Binance
On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH) reached a high of $2,391 on January 31, but briefly dropped to a low of $2,240 on the 1st day before recovering slightly. Over the past three days, it has been fluctuating between $2,280 and $2,330, reaching $2,285 before the deadline, a 0.8% decrease in the past 24 hours.
ETH spot price on Binance. Source: Binance
Trend observation 1: Slowing outflow of funds from GBTC
It is worth noting that the outflow of funds from Grayscale’s GBTC has been steadily decreasing. Data from BitMEX Research shows that on the 16th trading day since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF on February 2, a total of $145 million flowed out, which has continued to decrease for 9 days (except for a slight increase on the 30th) since reaching a daily outflow peak of $640 million on January 22.
Changes in inflow and outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds. Source: Lookonchain
Data from Lookonchain shows that GBTC has reduced its BTC holdings by 4,255 BTC (approximately $183 million) on the 3rd day. Since the approval of the conversion of GBTC to Bitcoin spot ETF, GBTC has reduced a total of 140,825 BTC (approximately $6.07 billion), while other ETFs such as BlackRock have increased by 175,479 BTC (approximately $7.56 billion), resulting in a net inflow of 34,654 BTC to spot ETFs.
Changes in BTC holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Source: Lookonchain
According to data from Arkham Intelligence, GBTC currently holds approximately 481,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $20.7 billion.
BTC holdings of GBTC. Source: Arkham Intelligence
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas previously predicted that the outflow rate of GBTC would be higher than 20% but not exceed 35%, and at least one-third of the funds flowing out of GBTC would be reinvested in Bitcoin. With the outflow from GBTC, the net inflow of funds to Bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to reach $10 billion this year.
Trend observation 2: USDT market cap reaches a new high
In addition, data from IntoTheBlock shows that USDT has reached a significant milestone with a market cap of $96 billion, reaching a new all-time high. IntoTheBlock also points out that the market cap of stablecoins has been steadily increasing, adding more than $9 billion since October 2023, further enhancing the likelihood of an upcoming bull market cycle.
Stablecoin market cap. Source: IntoTheBlock
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