46% of airdropped tokens achieved ATH within the first two weeks, and for some airdropped tokens, users may consider holding them long-term for appreciation and higher returns in favorable market conditions. This article is sourced from Nicholas Boey’s article “When Is the Best Time to Sell Airdrops?” on Coingecko, compiled, translated, and written by PANews.
Table of Contents
When is the best time to sell airdropped tokens?
Market conditions drive returns
2023 and 2024: Bullish sentiment returns?
Airdrops are becoming increasingly popular, but do users sell or hold after receiving them? Does the conclusion differ in different market environments? Coingecko analyzed the price performance of the top 50 airdropped tokens and summarized the findings.
Note: This report analyzed the number of days it took for airdrops to reach peak returns from January 1, 2020, to February 20, 2024. Short-term peak returns refer to the highest price returns within the first 14 days after the airdrop.
Among the top 50 largest airdrops, 23 tokens (46%) achieved their all-time high within two weeks after the airdrop. This suggests that the best time to sell airdropped tokens for maximum profit may be within 14 days after receiving them.
The airdropped tokens that achieved the highest prices in the short term include ENS (2nd day after trading + 73% peak return), X2Y2 (2nd day + 121%), Blur (6th day + 90%), LooksRare (10th day + 192%), and ArbDoge AI (14th day + 425%).
In recent airdrop performances, Jito (2nd day + 43%), Wen (3rd day + 37%), Dymension (10th day + 75%), Manta (12th day + 72%), and Heroes of Mavia (13th day + 217%). Although it remains to be seen whether the prices of these recent tokens will rise to new highs after only a few weeks of trading, users can profit the most if they sell shortly after receiving the airdrop.
Among these 23 airdropped tokens, 16 reached peak returns within 2-14 days after the airdrop. In other words, once the airdropped tokens are distributed and trading begins, user interest in them increases rapidly. This confirms that airdrops are an effective marketing or growth strategy, but it also indicates that interest in specific tokens often grows after the airdrop and reaches its peak shortly after, reflecting in the token’s price.
The prices of the remaining 7 tokens reached their peak on the day of the airdrop and couldn’t recover afterward. For example, the airdropped token (JUP) of Solana ecosystem aggregator Jupiter started trading at around $0.66 but subsequently dropped by 28% and is still below its initial price. This situation occurs when users are eager to profit from the airdrop, leading to immediate selling of the airdropped tokens. As more users decide to sell, these tokens face significant selling pressure and continue to decline in price.
On the other hand, out of the 50 airdropped tokens, 27 reached peak returns after two weeks of the airdrop, ranging from 15 days to 581 days. The longer time range for price peaks is usually consistent with favorable market conditions and the development of various projects, pushing the prices of airdropped tokens beyond their initial levels.
38% of airdropped tokens reached new highs during the 2021 bull market
During the 2021 crypto bull market, 19 out of the 50 airdropped tokens (38%) achieved all-time highs. All of these tokens were launched in 2021 or earlier, indicating that market conditions drove these tokens to higher prices.
Among these 19 tokens, 4 reached ATH more than 100 days after the airdrop. These tokens are Uniswap (1145%), 1inch (216%), Gitcoin (242%), and Bank (94%).
Compared to short-term peak returns after listing, these tokens achieved higher returns with their ATH prices. For example, the “long-term” ATH price return for Uniswap was 1145%, more than 10 times its short-term peak return of 106%.
This suggests that for certain airdropped tokens, users may consider holding them long-term for appreciation and higher returns in favorable market conditions.
2022: A good year for NFT airdrops, but not for other projects
In 2022, the crypto market was relatively bearish, with only 11 out of the 50 airdropped tokens reaching ATH. However, there was a bull market for NFTs in early 2022, pushing 3 out of the 11 airdropped tokens (ApeCoin, LooksRare, and X2Y2) to reach new highs. On the other hand, the other tokens that reached ATH in 2022 were launched in the same year and reached ATH shortly after the airdrop. The only exception was Osmosis, which was launched in June 2021 but reached ATH in 2022.
These data suggest that during bear markets, selling immediately after receiving the airdrop is the best time to maximize profits.
Bullish sentiment returns with the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the US. Out of the 50 airdropped tokens, 21 reached ATH in 2023 and 2024.
Among these 21 airdropped tokens, 8 reached ATH more than 100 days after the airdrop. These tokens are Arbitrum (68% peak return), Bonk (28,091%), Celestia (777%), Optimism (186%), Aptos (34%), WorldCoin (249%), Arkham (67%), and Maverick (38%).
Additionally, 5 airdropped tokens took 15-100 days to reach their price peaks, while the remaining 8 tokens reached ATH within 14 days after the airdrop. (Note: Out of the 8 tokens that reached ATH within 14 days, 5 were recent airdrops: Manta, Jupiter, dimension, Heroes of Mavia, and Wen).
This indicates a shift in market sentiment in 2024, suggesting that holding may result in higher profits when airdropped tokens reach new highs in expected bull market conditions.
Here are the number of days, weeks, or years it took for the top 50 airdropped tokens to reach their all-time high prices as of February 20, 2024, and the corresponding peak price returns:
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