With less than 50 days remaining until the Bitcoin halving, the overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has exceeded $2.4 trillion, leaving only around a 22% increase from its historical high in November 2021.
Following the launch of spot ETFs, the price of Bitcoin has shown strong upward momentum. In just two months, it has risen from $42,000 to a high of $62,000, representing a 45% increase. It is worth noting that another potential catalyst, the fourth halving, is expected to occur in mid-April this year. According to the latest data from Bitcoin Block Half, there are less than 50 days remaining until the Bitcoin halving.
The subsequent price trend after the halving remains uncertain. However, the data on Bitcoin holdings from the four major ETFs, in addition to Grayscale, indicates strong market confidence. According to statistics from HODL15Capital, in the eighth week since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT has acquired 34,270 BTC, Fidelity’s FBTC has acquired 12,243 BTC, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB has acquired 3,922 BTC, and Bitwise’s BITB has acquired 2,192 BTC.
However, Grayscale, the largest Bitcoin holdings provider among spot ETFs, has expressed a negative view on the market outlook. In their report on March 1, Grayscale analysts argued that when assessing the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as investments, one cannot ignore “macroeconomic” factors. They pointed out that persistently high inflation levels may lead Federal Reserve officials to postpone their plans for interest rate cuts. If inflation remains at a higher level, the Federal Reserve may choose to consider interest rate cuts later this year or even delay them until 2025. Such a policy stance could be negative for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Given that the cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and macroeconomic sentiment, such a decision could suppress the valuation of cryptocurrencies.
The market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has surpassed $2.4 trillion. If we observe the current market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, it is clear that it has risen significantly from its low point in July 2022. According to data from Coingecko as of March 2, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has exceeded $2.4 trillion, leaving only around a 22% increase from its historical high in November 2021. It is worth continuing to monitor whether it can surpass new highs in 2024.
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