In PlanB’s latest Bitcoin analysis, he predicts through the S2F model that Bitcoin will inevitably reach the $100,000 mark within this year and may surpass $500,000 next year. Additionally, PlanB emphasizes that we are currently in the early stage of a bull market and expects this bull market to last for about a year, similar to previous cycles.
In his video, PlanB explains the stock-to-flow (S2F) model and notes that Bitcoin closed at $71,000 in March, which was $10,000 higher than the previous month and marked a new high before the halving event. He points out that Bitcoin’s price always tends to reach the predicted level of the S2F model around the halving event (represented by the dark blue dots in the graph). He firmly states:
As for the price peak prediction for 2025, PlanB expects the average price of Bitcoin to reach $500,000 next year based on the S2F model. Therefore, he believes that the peak price will exceed this average level, possibly reaching $600,000, $700,000, or even $1 million.
Furthermore, PlanB analyzes the market cycle and believes that we are currently in the early stage of a bull market (represented by the red dots, up to the second one). He expects this stage to last for about a year, similar to the bull markets in 2013 and 2017.
He cautions that although the market will experience an upward trend, there will be normal corrections of 20% to 30% along the way. He reveals that he will not make any further moves in the next 12 months (speculated to be in a fully invested state) until the market transitions from the bull market stage (red dot) to the distribution stage (yellow dot).
PlanB observes that the RSI index is at a level of 77, the highest level before halving. Therefore, he believes that this is a signal that the market will not experience diminishing returns. He predicts that in the next one or two months, Bitcoin will demonstrate exponential growth, consistent with the predictions of the S2F model.
Note: RSI (Relative Strength Index) is an indicator used to measure the momentum of price changes and determine the overbought or oversold status of an asset.
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