Bitcoin is about to undergo its fourth halving tomorrow. Historically, the price of Bitcoin has surged significantly after halving events, leading many market participants to believe that the same will happen this time. However, some market observers think that this halving may be different. Nevertheless, anonymous analyst PlanB, who has successfully predicted the price of Bitcoin during the previous bull market cycles, stated this week that Bitcoin will still have a halving market.
According to the countdown data, the fourth halving is less than one day away and is expected to take place around 9 a.m. Taiwan time on April 20th. In the past, Bitcoin has experienced a “halving market” shortly after halving events, driving the price of the currency to grow substantially. However, many people now believe that there may not be a halving market this time.
The difference from previous halving events is that Bitcoin has already risen by 110% before the fourth halving. This has led some analysts to believe that the situation is different this time and that the halving market has already been reflected in the market. As a result, there may be a “Sell the news” event after the halving, causing Bitcoin to plummet.
PlanB reaffirms the upcoming halving market. Using his well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, PlanB shared a chart showing that in his view, this halving event will not be any different from previous ones. He suggests that the Bitcoin bull run will revolve around the halving. Buying in the six months before the halving and selling 18 months after the halving (marked by the green line) will outperform simply buying and holding. He predicts that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024 and reach over $300,000 in 2025.
Adam Back, the CEO of Bitcoin infrastructure company Blockstream, believes that Bitcoin will outperform gold in this market cycle, while PlanB responds by stating that Bitcoin is currently in the early stage of a bull market that is expected to last for about a year.
In response to criticism of inaccurate predictions, PlanB argues that the current halving of Bitcoin is accompanied by risks such as the Federal Reserve reaching a 23-year high and regional crises. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and manage risks effectively.