The sentencing hearing for Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) will officially take place on April 30 in a Seattle court in the United States. The US Department of Justice has requested a three-year sentence for Zhao. However, betting on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket shows that most gamblers believe Zhao will be released sooner.
Background:
CZ Sentencing Result to Be Announced on 4/30! US Probation Office Suggests 5 Months Probation, While the Department of Justice Seeks 3 Years, Be Cautious of BNB Volatility.
In November last year, Binance reached a settlement agreement with the US Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and other institutions. Binance pleaded guilty and agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine. Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) admitted to violating US anti-money laundering laws and other charges. He stepped down as CEO of Binance and paid a $175 million bail.
Zhao Changpeng’s sentencing hearing will be held on Tuesday at a Seattle court in the United States. According to the sentencing memorandum released by the US Department of Justice last week, Zhao should be sentenced to 36 months in prison and a fine of $50 million to demonstrate strict regulation against cryptocurrency money laundering activities.
Polymarket gamblers expect Zhao Changpeng to be released sooner. The recent betting market on Polymarket shows that gamblers believe there is a 44% chance of Zhao receiving a sentence of less than 6 months, a 17% chance of a 6-11 month sentence, a 16% chance of a 12-17 month sentence, and a 12% chance of an 18-23 month sentence. This means there is an 89% chance that Zhao will be released within two years. If a gambler bets $1 on Zhao receiving a sentence of less than 6 months and wins, they will receive $2.22, resulting in a 122% return on investment. Additionally, there is a 4% chance of a 24-29 month sentence, a 2% chance of a 30-35 month sentence, and a 10% chance of a sentence of 36 months or more.
Gamblers may rely on the support letters for Zhao Changpeng to convince the presiding judge to give a lenient sentence. A total of 161 support letters have been sent by his family, friends, and others, hoping that the judge can make a fair judgment after seeing a more complete picture of Zhao Changpeng. Zhao Changpeng has also sent an apology letter to the judge, apologizing for his “wrong decisions.”
CFTC seeks to strengthen regulation of prediction markets. It is worth noting that according to Coindesk, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking to strengthen regulation of prediction markets. They are considering banning derivatives related to US elections and may restrict betting contracts on other events, including sports and global health crises.
Although the Republican presidential primary is relatively short this year, with most candidates unable to surpass former President Trump and withdrawing from the race within weeks, according to Polymarket data, interest in the election remains at historically high levels. The current betting amount on the 2024 US presidential election winner has exceeded $117 million.
In theory, this $117 million wager does not come from the United States because Polymarket agreed to prohibit US users from using the platform in a settlement agreement reached with the CFTC last year.
Previously, Polymarket attracted more than $3.78 million in illegal bets on the outcome of the 2024 Taiwan presidential election, which raised concerns from Taiwan’s prosecutors and led to the arrest of over 30 gamblers within two months.