Industry forecasts suggest that it may take several weeks or even months before the SEC officially approves the Ethereum spot ETF S-1 filing and allows it to be listed. Several experts believe that the SEC’s delay will drive an increase in the value of ETH, with one analyst predicting that billions of dollars will be invested in the ETF before it is listed.
In the early hours of yesterday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the 19b-4 filings (exchange rule changes) submitted by eight Ethereum spot ETF issuers. However, formal trading is still pending the approval of the necessary S-1 registration statement by the SEC.
As for how long it will take to list, Nate Geraci, President of ETFStore, said on Monday that the SEC could approve the 19b-4 but slow down the execution of the S-1. It may still take “several weeks to several months” before we see the approval of the S-1 and the official listing of the Ethereum spot ETF.
Several experts predicted yesterday that we could see the first Ethereum spot ETF listed in June. Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, firmly predicted that there will definitely be results in June, while Discus Fish, founder of F2Pool, one of the five largest Bitcoin mining pools and also the founder of digital asset custody solution provider Cobo, predicted that the Ethereum spot ETF could be officially listed in “mid-June”.
However, there are also institutions that believe the listing will come after June. Galaxy Digital predicts it will be in July or August, while JPMorgan is betting on a later date in November.
Prior to this, some analytical institutions believed that compared to the rapid approval and listing of Bitcoin spot ETFs through 19b-4 and S-1 filings by the SEC earlier this year, the delay in approving the S-1 filing for the Ethereum spot ETF could cause significant price adjustments for ETH due to the uncertainty. However, several traders are optimistic and believe that this delay could help establish upward momentum in the Ethereum market before potential capital inflows from the spot ETF.
According to The Block, Zaheer Ebtikar, Co-founder of cryptocurrency hedge fund Split Capital, explained that traders are not aware of the SEC’s change in attitude at the last critical moment and are now using leverage to capture early momentum, resulting in a 26% increase in open interest in contracts. However, as short-term traders take profits, this situation may reverse, but the launch of the ETF should increase spot trading volume.
James Seyffart, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, said in an interview last night that he predicts that the demand for Ethereum spot ETFs could be 20-25% of Bitcoin spot ETFs, while his colleague Eric Balchunas believes it could be 15-20%.
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Forex Research and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted on Tuesday that the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF could bring in 2.39 to 9.15 million ETH, equivalent to $15 billion to $45 billion in capital inflow, within the first 12 months. He also predicted that with Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of the year, Ether could rise to $8,000.
Related reports:
SEC approves Ethereum spot ETF, experts analyze: ETH and most cryptocurrencies are “not securities” and can finally be relieved.
After the SEC approves the Ethereum spot ETF, can Gensler and the other five commissioners intervene in the reevaluation?
What’s next for Ethereum in the long and short tug-of-war? Looking for clues from the historical trend of Bitcoin ETFs.
If the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it will lead to “supply shortage” of ETH! Co-founder discusses three reasons…