Trader Bob Loukas is currently focusing on the potential buying opportunities for BTC below $50,000. He suggests that those with insufficient positions consider adding to them during this period of volatility. This article was written by Crypto, Distilled and compiled, translated, and written by Deep Tide.
(Background:
Opinion: Bitcoin has entered the “post-halving consolidation period”, and a low point is expected in the market within six months
)
Table of Contents
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
Why hasn’t the market gone up?
When will the oscillation end?
When might the market peak?
Possible trends
Trend convergence
Bob’s buying strategy
The macro view top in 2025
When will the consolidation end? Despite widespread pessimism and anger, the price of $BTC has only dropped 15% from its peak. Renowned trader Bob Loukas brings hope:
Here are his main points.
We reached the all-time high of the previous cycle in the 16th month, while the previous cycle took over two years. We have been consolidating for the third month.
Historically, $BTC pauses after reaching an all-time high and then achieves the final cycle peak afterwards. Longer consolidation periods mean that the next rise will be healthier and more robust.
Consolidation has been going on for 14 weeks following the ETF news, dropping 12% from the high. Given the nearly doubling of the price from the recent low in January 2024, this volatility was expected.
It is worth noting that the 7-week cycle low in January was $38,000 (price doubled).
Bob pointed out several key factors:
The whales of the previous cycle sold off near $60,000
Concerns about a potential monthly doubling top
Outflows from GBTC (selling pressure)
Transition of on-chain assets to ETF assets
The expected anticipation of ETFs has driven the rise in the fourth quarter of 2023
Be patient. It has already tripled since September 2023 and needs a pullback. Similar to the low point after the doubling cycle in the first quarter of 2023, a broad base forms prior to the rise in the fourth quarter. The oscillation may continue until July or August to complete the bottoming process.
According to the four-year cycle, the peak may still be far away. Past cycles have typically taken 33-35 months from the low point to the high point. If this pattern holds, October 2025 is a possibility (16-17 more months). The large gap between the 10-month moving average and the price indicates a potential pullback.
We may soon see the next regional bottom, possibly at the end of the month. Bullish signs include higher lows, and much higher than the low in January 2024, indicating a strong market.
After this regional bottom, one scenario is to sweep it and reclaim the high.
The second possibility is to continue the oscillating price trend. This stage may last until September, forming a regional bottom but not breaking through the all-time high.
The third possibility is another 30% drop, typical of past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but with the presence of ETFs, this is a significant difference. Some believe that it is impossible to reach around $55,000 with ETFs, but Bob strongly disagrees.
All three trends are expected to converge around October, November, and December 2024, targeting a breakthrough of the all-time high and further rise. During this period, Bitcoin’s trend may significantly affect the investment return of altcoins.
Bob’s last purchase was near the cycle low of $17,000. Now, he is looking at the potential buying opportunities for $BTC below $50,000. He suggests that those with insufficient positions consider adding to them during this period of volatility.
Bob expects the second stage of the cycle to be healthier. He believes that the market’s high point will appear in the latter half of the current cycle. However, the peak time may be different, possibly in the second quarter of 2024 (the 30th month) or earlier, rather than in the fourth quarter of 2025.
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