Asia Blockchain Summit 2024 (ABS2024) will return with a bang from August 6th to August 8th at the Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center! To mark the occasion, Dooqu has invited renowned bestselling author of “Currency Wars,” Song Hongbing, for an exclusive interview.
Summary:
ABS 2024 is making a powerful comeback! The Asia Blockchain Summit from August 6th to August 8th will once again revolutionize the blockchain, AI, and future governance.
Background:
The English, Hong Kong, and South Korean projects will make a strong appearance in Taiwan on June 20th, kicking off the largest Web3 game exhibition, ABS Game Zone.
Table of Contents:
Federal Reserve caught in a dilemma: fear of a repeat of the economic hard landing in the 1970s.
AI development will collide with an energy barrier: overvaluation of a common theme.
Can computing power transform into currency? Beware of repeating the mistakes of the dot-com bubble.
The only consensus in the US election: suppressing China.
Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies is just a political move.
Is Satoshi Nakamoto a group? Like the heroes uprising in Liangshan.
Environmentalism = thermometer of left-wing and right-wing ideologies.
About ABS 2024 (Asia Blockchain Summit):
The bestselling book “Currency Wars” has swept the globe since its release in 2007. Against the backdrop of the 2008 financial crisis, it became a hot topic, achieving 25 editions in just three months and becoming the best-selling economic book worldwide. Although more than a decade has passed, some people still believe in conspiracy theories behind currencies, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. In the new edition’s preface, author Song Hongbing states:
“In this era of increasing importance of AI, blockchain, and global sustainability, currency still plays a crucial role as the medium controlling everything. In preparation for the upcoming Asia Blockchain Summit in 2024, Dooqu has invited author Song Hongbing as a guest speaker. We conducted an exclusive interview with Mr. Song to discuss the future global economic market, AI and financial technology, the rise of Bitcoin, and the hidden secrets behind it.”
Interestingly, the profound changes in the global economy and geopolitics discussed in the book “Currency Wars” seem to be gradually coming true over time. After the outbreak of the pandemic, the United States implemented massive quantitative easing policies, leading to a global state of high inflation and economic contraction. The major players in the international market are profoundly influencing the global political and economic landscape. Mr. Song believes that the world economy is still heavily influenced by the US dollar system:
“Looking at financial market news, the global market has generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year since last year. However, we are now more than halfway through June, and there are no signs of interest rate cuts. This has left many investors confused and trying to understand the current status of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies and their intentions. Some reasonable inferences may point us in the right direction.”
Mr. Song believes that by analyzing the actions of the Federal Reserve this year, we can understand the dilemma it faces. He states that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates now, market expectations for inflation may rebound rapidly, leading to a new round of stronger inflation and a repeat of the mistakes of the 1970s. However, if the Federal Reserve chooses not to cut interest rates now, it may lead to a systemic crisis due to fiscal deficits, interest expenses, pressures on small and medium-sized banks, and commercial real estate problems. This is also the root cause of this year’s market instability.
In addition to the uncertainty brought by the overall economy, recent topics have been filled with AI-related stocks and investment terms. The competition for computing power among major technology leaders has attracted high attention from global investors. As the AI wave progresses, the market begins to question whether there will be a critical moment when this endless computational game relying on graphics cards and consuming massive resources will come to a halt.
Mr. Song also quotes Huang Renxun’s words to offer new insights: “If AI develops according to the super Moore’s Law, by 2030 or 2050, the electricity consumption of AI alone will reach 14 times the current global energy consumption.”
Mr. Song points out that the key lies in energy reserves. The bottleneck of this computing power competition may become stuck in energy supply, which is an inevitable problem in the future. In addition to energy, materials related to power supply may also face shortages. Mr. Song states that the current surge in copper and silver prices reflects people’s strong expectations for AI. However, the real economy cannot support such high growth because these prices will rise quickly, affecting the development of other industries.
Looking at economic history, Mr. Song recalls that AI is not the first great technological revolution invented by humans. The world has previously experienced the IT revolution and the electricity revolution. For example, the electricity revolution began in the United States long ago, but the development of these revolutions had limitations and challenges, and AI is no exception.
Therefore, Mr. Song points out that the market’s expectations for new technologies are too high, believing that new technologies should immediately change the world economy. However, the economic penetration speed of technology is not that fast, and significant impact also takes time. This overly optimistic expectation has led to overvaluation of AI-related themes, which is the risk.
In addition to the financial themes brought by AI, the industry, such as OpenAI, has also proposed visions like “computing power currency.” CEO Sam Altman has put forward an innovative vision of considering AI computing power as an asset that can be used to replace money and provide a “universal basic income (UBI)” in the future. This would allow every citizen to share a portion of the computational power of AI’s large models and freely use these computational capabilities, similar to using currency, including transactions, rentals, donations, and other methods.
However, Mr. Song believes that although this vision seems to solve the employment problems that AI may cause, there may be concerns similar to the history of internet bubbles behind it.
Recalling the 1990s, Mr. Song once worked at a telecommunications company called WorldCom in the United States. At that time, WorldCom was the world’s largest internet communication company, with almost half of the world’s traffic passing through it. Six out of thirteen servers belonged to this company. In 2003, WorldCom went bankrupt and became one of the largest bankruptcies in US history.
Geopolitics is also an important factor affecting the world, and the United States is currently facing an important presidential election. Looking at the close race between Trump and Biden this year, the competition between the two sides is intense. The final result is still difficult to predict, and the advantages and disadvantages of both sides are still unclear.
In this context, how does Mr. Song evaluate the current situation of the Democratic and Republican parties and which candidate will have a greater impact on global economic stability?
Mr. Song explains that this election is not just a competition between the two candidates but also a contest representing different political trends and forces. In the context of globalization and anti-globalization, regardless of the election result, it may trigger a major division within the United States.
During the interview, Mr. Song also discusses the role of cryptocurrencies in the 2024 US election. For example, Trump has started accepting cryptocurrency donations, and his son recently issued a meme coin. This has become a positive factor for Trump’s campaign, attracting support from many cryptocurrency investors and industry. On the other hand, it has also put pressure on Biden’s campaign.
In the past, Mr. Song has mentioned that the purpose of Bitcoin and blockchain is to subvert traditional finance and central banking systems, but their structure is not yet complete, and they are not a final system. Now, the impact of the cryptocurrency industry on the US election is so significant. Does this change Mr. Song’s perspective?
Mr. Song does not think that Trump is truly friendly to cryptocurrencies. He believes that it may be just a means for Trump to seek votes.
Regarding cryptocurrencies, we also want to know how Mr. Song, famous for his analysis of currencies and conspiracy theories, views the most mysterious figure in the history of cryptocurrencies — Satoshi Nakamoto. There are many different answers to this question. Some people say that it is a system invented by the United States to infiltrate China, while others say that it is actually invented by a Chinese-Japanese immigrant with Chinese nationality. Mr. Song believes that Satoshi Nakamoto and Bitcoin are highly purposeful things, aiming to bring revolution to the world:
Mr. Song speculates that these people hope to use absolute fairness of mathematical laws to replace the arbitrariness of the existing monetary system. At that time, they never thought that Bitcoin would develop into what it is today, but with the success of Bitcoin, they may become the richest people on Earth. This has turned Bitcoin from opposing currency monopolies to a new monopolist.
At the end of the interview, we discussed sustainability and environmental issues, especially in activities such as Bitcoin mining and AI, which require a large amount of computational power and consume significant amounts of electricity. In the visible future, these activities will not only not decrease but also grow on a large scale.
In the past decade, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards and emission standards have encouraged companies to purchase goods or take political actions to achieve certain sustainability goals. However, currently, led by major US corporations, these companies are starting to move away from ESG demands and no longer mention these things. This sends a signal that “humanity is entering an era of massive resource consumption,” and environmental issues are no longer a priority. Mr. Song, how does he interpret sustainability or the contradiction of resource consumption?
The interview with Mr. Song ends with a discussion on sustainability and environmental issues. Every change is accompanied by a struggle for power, ideas, and interests, just as Mr. Song said in “Currency Wars”: whoever controls the currency can dominate the world. The conflicts in today’s world are not only about territory and resources but also about the dominance of the financial system.
After more than a decade since the publication of “Currency Wars,” we are honored to invite Mr. Song Hongbing as a guest speaker at the Asia Blockchain Summit 2024. Finally, Mr. Song would like to say a few words to the readers.
About ABS 2024 (Asia Blockchain Summit):
ABS 2024 will be held from August 6th to 8th at the Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center Hall 2. ABS 2024 has attracted over 15,000 participants from 30 countries this year and is known as the global preferred stage for the historic moment of the blockchain industry.
Throughout the years, ABS has invited almost all “leaders of the Web 3.0 world” as speakers, such as Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao), BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, Dr. Doom Roubini, SEC commissioner aka Crypto Mom Hester Peirce, Animoca Brands CEO Robby Yung, Litecoin creator Charlie Lee, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, and many more.
The invited speakers for ABS 2024 include Ethereum founder Vitalik, TON Foundation Chairman Steve Yun, Memeland&9GAG founder Ray Chen, Indian prodigy Anand, Three Arrows Capital founder Su Zhu, and many others.
ABS official website:
https://abs.io/
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