When BlackRock submitted its Bitcoin ETF application, the price of Bitcoin was around $25,000. Now, the return on Bitcoin has reached 2.6 times. Will the approval of an Ethereum ETF further boost the price of Ethereum?
The timing of the approval for the Ethereum spot ETF to be listed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is being closely watched by the market. On the evening of June 21st, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas released information that there are a total of 8 applicants for an Ethereum spot ETF, and reiterated that July 2nd will be the issuance date for the Ethereum spot ETF.
The Bitcoin ETF has provided many new buyers with the opportunity to include Bitcoin in their investment portfolios, leading to a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. When BlackRock submitted its Bitcoin ETF application, the price of Bitcoin was around $25,000. Now, the return on Bitcoin has reached 2.6 times. Will the approval of an Ethereum ETF further boost the price of Ethereum?
Andrew Kang: Limited Impact of Ethereum ETF
Regarding predictions for future price increases, Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, expressed conservative views today (23), pointing out that compared to Bitcoin, the impact of an Ethereum ETF appears to be limited. Even though the return on Ethereum has also reached 2.1 times in the same period, this increase is not as significant as that of Bitcoin.
He believes that the key to determining how much upside potential an Ethereum ETF can provide lies in whether Ethereum can develop innovative paths for economic improvement. If Ethereum can achieve significant breakthroughs in technology and applications, its upside potential will be more considerable. Otherwise, if effective methods for economic improvement cannot be found, its upside potential will be limited.
ETH May Fall to $2,400 After ETF Launch
According to Eric Balchunas, the market flow of Ethereum may only be 10% of that of Bitcoin. This means that within 6 months, the estimated net purchasing flow of Ethereum will be $500 million, with a net flow of $1.5 billion.
Andrew Kang personally predicts that the market flow of Ethereum ETF will be about 15% of the market flow of Bitcoin, which is a true net purchase amount of $840 million and a net flow of $2.52 billion.
Before the ETF launch, the expected trading price of ETH is between $3,000 and $3,800, and after the ETF launch, Andrew Kang predicts a price between $2,400 and $3,000. It is worth noting that Andrew Kang also stated that everything still depends on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises to $100,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025, this may push ETH to a historical high, but the ETH/BTC ratio will be lower.