In a sluggish market, data shows that Bitcoin miner income is approaching a historic low, and Ethereum Gas fees fell below 3 gwei over the weekend, reaching the lowest level since 2020.
The cryptocurrency market continues to perform weakly, which has also led to a decrease in the activity of the ecosystem. According to data from “THE BLOCK,” Bitcoin miner income per TH/s (7-day moving average) has hit a historic low in the past two months since the Bitcoin halving in mid-April. The upward trend that occurred in June has been broken and continues to decline.
According to Glassnode data, the BTC balance in Bitcoin miners’ wallets has been decreasing steadily since October 2023, with a total reduction of 30,000 BTC, currently amounting to around 1.8 million BTC. One possible reason for this is that after the Bitcoin halving, mining operation costs have increased, leading to the need to sell Bitcoin to obtain operational funds or purchase new equipment to improve mining capabilities. Additionally, smaller mining companies may have difficulty continuing their operations and are forced to sell Bitcoin to realize profits and close their mining businesses.
Furthermore, Coinglass data shows that the 30-day average volatility of Bitcoin has decreased to 1.25%, reaching the lowest record since 2024.
On the other hand, Ethereum Gas fees fell below 3 gwei over the weekend, reaching the lowest level since 2020. Besides the decrease in ecosystem activity, the “Dencun” upgrade in mid-March brought “blob” to Ethereum, reducing the cost of transactions on the second-layer network. As a result, the median price of Gas fees has steadily declined.
The lower Gas fees have also resulted in Ethereum’s burn rate dropping to the lowest point in the past 12 months. According to Ultrasound.money data, due to the lower burn rate, Ethereum is currently experiencing slight inflation, with an average supply growth rate of 0.56% per year in the past seven days. However, if observed over a longer period, Ethereum is still deflationary, but more time is needed for further observation.
Will there be a turning point in the sluggish market? QCP Capital, a digital asset trading company, shared its views over the weekend. Regarding the options market, QCP Capital observed that a large number of call options expiring within one month were being sold, while call options expiring from September to December were being bought. This indicates that the market expects little price volatility in the short term but sees the potential for a significant increase before the end of the year. In other words, the summer market is expected to be range-bound, but there is a possibility of a market surge during the US presidential election.
Furthermore, due to the anticipated launch of an ETH spot ETF, the implied volatility of ETH is 18% higher than that of BTC, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment among investors towards ETH.
According to data from options trading platform Deribit, the Bitcoin call options expiring on September 27 with a strike price of $90,000 and the Bitcoin call options expiring on December 27 with a strike price of $75,000 are the top two traded Bitcoin call options, indicating a high market expectation for Bitcoin to reach new highs in the fourth quarter of this year.