According to historical data, Bitcoin usually performs poorly in June but experiences a rebound in July, leading to a recovery in the cryptocurrency market. This article, sourced from “雨中狂睡” and compiled, translated, and written by Foresight News, highlights the sectors worth paying attention to in July.
Table of Contents:
1. Ethereum (S Grade)
2. Layer1 (A Grade), Layer2 (B Grade), Layer3 (C Grade)
– Solana (A Grade)
– Avalanche (B Grade)
– Fantom (B Grade)
3. RWA (A Grade)
4. AI (A Grade)
5. Social Media, currently a false proposition, rated C.
6. Gaming, currently rated C. False proposition x2
– Gm frens, July outlook is here. Let’s discuss the narratives that may be speculated in July, as well as my personal ratings. (Note: S, A, B, C grades represent the ranking of importance according to my assessment)
– The most important events in July are the ETH spot ETF and Mt. Gox. The market always reacts before the events. As the events approach, their impact on the market diminishes. This is also why people often say “Buy the Rumour, Sell the News.”
– If history rhymes, ETH may have a similar performance to BTC after the ETF approval. Of course, we should also consider the overall macro environment and the impact of the US elections on the market.
– However, I agree with Zhusu’s view on “Sell the News.” The market’s reflexivity, bro.
– Regarding ETH Beta, I previously selected four tokens: $ENS, $ETHFI, $TURBO, $MOG. The prices of $TURBO and $MOG are highly volatile, suitable for short-term trading, while $ENS has performed the best.
– Regarding $TURBO, I updated my understanding: it is not closely related to ETH, so it will be removed from the list. The current list includes: $ENS, $LDO, $PEPE, $MOG, $MKR ($MKR still has the narrative of splitting and renaming, and the protocol’s revenue/fundamentals are also great).
– Interested friends can review my previous tweet.
– I have already discussed my views before. Solana currently only has one narrative, which is the meme coin casino. As for the catalysts for the ETF application, Blink, and the previous narratives of Depin and Solana Mobile, they still need time to be verified.
– In summary, Solana’s goal is mass adoption, but it still has a long way to go. Currently, the market’s demand for Solana is only for meme coin speculation.
– Avalanche may introduce some new activities, similar to the previous Avalanche Rush. “Proof of $AVAX Boost” will be converted to $S, as I have discussed in my previous tweet. I don’t have much to share about Layer2, mainly focusing on the wealth effect of Basechain and the farming opportunities on Arbitrum. However, there aren’t many opportunities to get involved in Layer2 tokens like $ARB and $OP. At the same time, if the ZK narrative explodes, you know which target to choose 
– $ZK is the best meme for ZK.
– Regarding Layer3’s $XAI, I will briefly discuss my perspective. Currently, Xai Chain’s TPS has reached 104, ranking first in Ethereum Layer2 & Layer3. I have already explained this phenomenon in my previous tweet. In addition, on July 9th, $XAI will unlock approximately 200 million tokens (accounting for 71% of the current circulation) – this is a super large unlocking event.
– Speculating conspiratorially, could these two events be related? Will Xai use data manipulation to make price growth more reasonable? Everything is unknown. But I have included $XAI in my watchlist, and once there is an unusual price change, I will intervene immediately.
– I actually have a positive outlook on $DEGEN, but unfortunately, its price performance has been poor. So, I won’t elaborate on it here.
– In summary, the price of Layer3 tokens mainly depends on catalysts and narratives, with not many actual users (referring to $DEGEN, $DMT, and $WINR). Short-term is greater than long-term.
– $ONDO is the best target and is closely related to BlackRock’s stuff. Ondo and Ethereum are the main battlegrounds for BlackRock’s tokenization.
– Not much to discuss. The merger of $FET, $OCEAN, and $AGIX is about to be completed, and the unlocking of $WLD has already begun. If the sector’s rise depends on the release of external products/technologies, it is also short-term speculation. In the 30-day narrative strength comparison, AI Token’s price performance is the weakest.
– Data source: Dune
– Previously, I believed that Coinbase Smart Wallet would bring about a wave of speculation about Basechain, but ultimately, the overall performance of the Basechain ecosystem was not impressive, with only $BRETT standing out. I failed in this coin selection wave.
– The reflection is that the market’s liquidity and sentiment are not enough to sustain a major explosion in the Basechain ecosystem. Perhaps only one or two coins will have outstanding performances. It’s also not good to enter too early; you can only monitor the chain’s price movement and enter on the right side.
– Pixels Online’s performance is still strong, but its price performance is poor.
– The Beacon’s performance is not good – although the related activities have driven the return of old players and the addition of new players, the sustainability is not good.
– Mavia has launched Phase 2, which can be referred to in this tweet, but the market is not buying it.
– From the comparison of the narrative token’s strength in the past 90 days, we can clearly see that the gaming narrative did not perform well in the previous quarter (low IQ: the worst). I expect a reversal, but I won’t get involved for now.
– Specific events in July can be viewed in this image.
– Regarding macro predictions, I recommend these two articles:
– First article: Analysis of Arthur Hayes’ personal views
– Second article: (image)
– Related reports:
– AMA Highlights: Revealing the Ace of the Bull Market! How top institutions and analysts foresee the second half of 2024
– JZ Weekly Report: The US dollar remains strong, the Japanese yen continues to be slaughtered, Solana ETF narrative ignited? The market is still filled with smoke…
– Rich Dad’s Warning: Bitcoin ETF is fake, buying real BTC is the way to go.