In the wake of a market flash crash influenced by war in April, it wasn’t long before the market faced another “darkest moment.” According to OKX market data, Bitcoin once plummeted to $53,296, a nearly 10% drop within 24 hours; Ethereum also fell to $2,806, exceeding a 10% loss. Such significant declines were influenced by news such as the Mt.Gox billion-dollar creditor compensation and continuous Bitcoin address transfers by the German government, as well as Bitcoin’s repeated breaches of miner shutdown prices, continuous net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the liquidation of some Bitcoin and Ethereum whales.
In light of this, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the perspectives of some research institutions and individuals in this article for readers’ reference.
As the market continued to fall, the renowned research institution 10x Research once again stated, “I told you,” indicating they had predicted the price crash (Note: This is 10x’s typical self-promotion). When Bitcoin’s price hit $67,300, they had already forecasted a downturn. Even after the “Trump effect” over the weekend (Note: Referring to the slight rise in Trump-related political meme coins due to Trump’s performance in the U.S. election debate), they warned that the rebound was unsustainable and reiterated their target prices for Bitcoin at $55,000 and $50,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s spot trading price is $54,000, which has fallen by 20% since their warning signal.
Before Ethereum broke through $3,725, we mentioned in our report that a chain liquidation could occur, causing its price to fall back to levels before the ETF anticipation rally. These liquidations didn’t wait long, with a sharp decline in futures open interest contracts last night. Since releasing the related report on June 7, Ethereum has fallen by 22%, with a current trading price of around $2,900.
It’s worth noting that now is not the time to rush into buying the dip, but rather to sit back and let the bears continue their performance.
Meanwhile, many readers had likely prepared for this sell-off. Although we prefer bull markets, sometimes locking in profits at high levels is the right strategy.
There are always opportunities to make money in the crypto market, and our investment method has proven once again that price trends are predictable, allowing for profits whether prices rise or fall. Our research has been at the forefront of this downturn. (Note: You know the tone of 10x).
From a market cycle perspective, crypto analyst Rekt Capital analyzed, “In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak on the 518th day after halving; in the 2019-2021 cycle, it peaked on the 546th day after halving. If history repeats, the next bull market’s price peak will occur between the 518th and 546th days after halving, which means Bitcoin could reach a new price peak in mid-September or mid-October 2025. Previously, Bitcoin accelerated to 260 days within this cycle. However, due to the recent consolidation phase of over three months, its acceleration rate has sharply decreased, now around 150 days. Generally, Bitcoin maintains a longer consolidation period after halving, and resynchronizing with the traditional halving cycle tends to yield better results.”
Cycle Structure Synchronization Theory
On the other hand, looking at the structure of Bitcoin’s long and short-term holders, BlockTrends research director and on-chain analyst Cauê Oliveira stated that novice investors are in trouble and losing money. During the downturn, approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin (purchased in the last 3-6 months) was sold off. This selling pressure came from individuals or organizations that bought Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, possibly speculating on events like the Bitcoin spot ETF and Bitcoin halving, but now they may have no choice but to exit. They might be classified as “long-term holders,” but their actual behavior is more like short-term investors, as they entered at relatively high points at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, individuals or organizations holding for over a year have not made more sales, indicating that true long-term holders continue to HODL.
Bitcoin Transfer Amounts Within 3-6 Months
Regarding specific bullish and bearish operations and whether to buy, the well-known crypto KOL il Capo of Crypto, who was “firmly bearish” during the market’s rise, has unusually expressed his “firm hold” belief this time. He stated, “The market downturn is indeed more brutal than expected. However, at this point of panic and sell-off, I don’t think it’s appropriate to turn bearish or choose to sell. Now is the time to ‘broaden the horizon and stay calm.’ Mistakes may happen, but hold firm. Time will prove everything.”
As Odaily Planet Daily’s senior author wrote in the latest market article “Mt.Gox Crashes the Market, BTC 24H Drop 10% Falls Below $54,000, Where’s the Bottom?,” “The main reason for this round of market downturn is due to Mt.Gox’s sell-off, but the market may be exaggerating its impact.”
Mr. Market is sometimes slow, slow enough that real news doesn’t ferment immediately; but sometimes sensitive, sensitive enough to react to any slight disturbance as if it’s “beyond redemption.” However, “the main factors influencing future market trends are the results of the U.S. election and the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.”
Therefore, for market participants, including retail investors and institutions, the best choice now might be to shift from “long-term thinking” to “short-term thinking,” focusing on operations within 6 hours or even 4 hours, 2 hours, leaning more towards trend trading rather than overly fixating on the question of whether “Bitcoin and the broader market are in a bull market,” which has no definitive answer.
In summary, it’s 16 words — “Recognize the situation, abandon illusions, operate short-term, and wait for positive news.”
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