BTC recently broke through $69,000, and market investors are expecting it to reach a new high. This article analyzes the future market trends through the perspectives of different traders and influencers.
Technical Analysis:
@leon_li2:
Looking at the BTC candlestick chart, it seems that the price has broken through the downward trend line of the past six months and is hitting new highs every day. However, the trading volume for these new highs has significantly decreased. On the other hand, ETH has broken through the previous high but has only reached the resistance level of $2,800. Yesterday’s increase in ETH brought about a high market sentiment, with contract prices exceeding spot prices for the first time. This suggests that the bull market may be reaching its end.
@Crypto_Painter_X:
From the ASR-VC4 hourly channel, the current price behavior is similar to the one at the end of September, where it continues to hover near the average resistance zone. It could either be a consolidation or a depletion of momentum. From the perspective of spot premiums, it resembles the market situation in early June, indicating a bullish trend in the long run. The key level for a full bullish trend reversal is at $71,000, with the first target possibly near the overbought line at around $77,500.
@Patrade_Buer:
From a weekly perspective, the market continues to rise, and BSL is waiting to be plundered. To continue the upward trend, it must make new highs, with the initial target starting with a 9. Currently, it is still within the range (usually, FVG gaps will be filled), so pay attention to any opportunities for WFVG around $64,500.
From a daily perspective, it continues to oscillate upwards, and the main focus is on the plundering of BSL. If there is a chance for a pullback, it would likely be around $645. BTC doesn’t offer many trading opportunities, so it’s better to look for opportunities in altcoins.
From an hourly perspective, it continues to oscillate upwards, creating new highs. If it doesn’t break below the OB level, short-term long positions can be taken intra-day. If it falls below the OB level, it can provide an opportunity for buying on the pullback.
@CryptosLaowai:
Firstly, the long-term downtrend line of this cycle has been broken and successfully retested, forming a bearish rising wedge on a smaller timeframe. This suggests a short-term weakness, with a potential drop to the downtrend line of the longer-term and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of the current rally, which is roughly around $67,000. On a larger scale, the first target of the current rally is still around $72,000.
@Data Analysts:
@Kbeast.eth:
Based on the value area of BTC’s wide-ranging oscillation over the past six months, yesterday’s breakout did not surpass the Value Area High (VAH) of the past six months. The thickest distribution, which represents the largest supply area, is around $70,900. If the price continues to rise without any upward auction rejection, the next target would be $70,900.
From the perspective of the annual Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), there has been a breakthrough without any significant downward drive or clear retest. Therefore, in the short term, it is expected to continue its upward breakout. According to the buyer liquidity depth chart and liquidation heatmap, a key level for a downward retracement is roughly between $65,000 and $67,000.
@LinChen91162689:
From a data perspective, in terms of spot trading, there was a small amount of selling over the weekend, but a significant increase in buying occurred on Monday morning. The upward movement occurred in two stages. As for futures trading, there was continuous small-scale selling on Sunday night and Monday morning. During the first upward movement, traders were still closing long and short positions, but after surpassing $69,000, the market sentiment turned bullish. It seems that the bearish view was based on the assumption of a false breakout at $69,000 and traders who entered on the left side were stopped out when the spot market attracted strong buying pressure.
Coinbase, which had been continuously selling, started to make small purchases from Sunday, which is a significant change. However, Binance Futures showed clear buying only during the three significant price increases, while the rest of the time involved small-scale closing of long and short positions. In summary, there has been an emergence of buying pressure in the spot market, although the volume is not significant. If it can absorb the profit-taking supply from futures, the price can stabilize above $69,000.
From the perspective of USDT market dominance, the weekly USDT market dominance has slightly dropped below the upward trend line of the past six months. If this is confirmed, it indicates the entry of idle funds, and the most probable outcome is a temporary peak in BTC dominance. Projects in the altcoin and small-cap sectors may gain comprehensive liquidity in the next 2-3 weeks.
Looking at the total open interest of BTC futures, it has remained above $40 billion for three consecutive days while the price has increased by $1,500. This indicates that there has been some buying in the spot market. However, compared to the open interest during the oscillation around $68,000 to $69,000, the current total open interest has increased by $2.5 billion. For the spot market bulls, although sentiment is high, there hasn’t been significant selling pressure.
Macro Analysis:
@Phyrex_Ni:
Last Friday, the data for BTC spot ETFs performed well. Although there was a decrease in buying power, there is still a significant amount of funds concentrated in BTC. On Friday, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 4,099 BTC, which is the lowest data for the week but still relatively strong compared to previous weeks.
BlackRock has been consistently increasing its holdings for five consecutive working days, adding a total of 16,975 BTC. This kind of weekly increase hasn’t been seen since March. Fidelity ranks second with a net increase of 4,807 BTC, followed by ARK with 4,538 BTC, and Bitwise with 2,244 BTC.
It is worth mentioning that Grayscale’s GBTC has seen a net increase of 963 BTC in the past week, not including the amount added by Mini ETFs. This is in stark contrast to ETH. Even in a tight liquidity situation, investors’ limited funds still focus mainly on BTC.
In the past week, the net buying power of the twelve US ETFs amounted to 31,119.43 BTC, an increase of 685.34% compared to the previous week. Grayscale’s net selling has turned into a net inflow of 1,232.71 BTC, which is a significant change.