Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $73,000 mark this morning, reaching a high of $73,650 at 3 AM, just under $150 away from its historical peak. However, selling pressure emerged thereafter, and by the time of publication, it was reported at $72,314, reflecting a 24-hour increase of 1.7%. With the U.S. presidential election approaching, opinions on Bitcoin’s future trajectory vary in the market. Below are the perspectives from various traders and analysts.
(Background Summary: Bitcoin’s drop after breaking through $73,000 “just $150 shy of a new high” – is it a trend reversal or a healthy correction? BTC open interest continues to surge.)
(Additional Context: Gold approaches a new high of $2,800, amid the U.S. presidential election and war risks… outpacing the S&P 500, could Bitcoin be next?)
**Article Index**
– Surge in Bitcoin spot ETF inflows indicates arrival of FOMO
– Eugene expects extreme volatility in the next two weeks
– Matrixport: Surge in Bitcoin demand
– Bitwise: Bitcoin could reach $200,000
– K33 Research: Bitcoin market indicators are healthy and may rise further
Since reaching a historical high of $73,787 in March this year, Bitcoin’s price has exhibited a downward trend for several months, dipping close to $48,000 at one point. However, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and the U.S. presidential election set for November 5, combined with investors’ optimism for an overall increase in October, Bitcoin has shown strong performance recently.
This morning, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $73,000 mark, reaching a high of $73,650 at 3 AM, just under $150 away from its historical peak. However, selling pressure soon emerged, and by the time of publication, it was reported at $72,314, showing a 24-hour increase of 1.7%. As the U.S. presidential election approaches, analysts have varying views on Bitcoin’s future trajectory, summarized as follows.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF, IBIT, saw inflows of $599.8 million on the 29th, confirming FOMO sentiment. IBIT’s daily trading volume reached $3.35 billion, the highest level in over six months. According to CoinGlass data, the total inflow for 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. on the 29th reached $827 million. Balchunas believes that if this is indeed FOMO mania, it will be reflected in ETF fund flows in the coming nights; if not, it could just be high-frequency arbitrage trading or similar activities.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, expressed a similar view, noting that the 29th marked the third-highest trading day for Bitcoin ETFs since April 1, 2024, with a total daily trading volume of $4.64 billion, of which IBIT accounted for approximately 38%, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $390.32 million. It is worth noting that the increase in trading volume indicates strong ETF liquidity but does not reflect new capital inflows.
Top trader Eugene published a summary of October trading, stating that the theme this month was buying on dips. At the beginning of the month, he faced stop-losses at the lows of WIF and PEPE due to premature bets on FUD related to the Iran-Israel conflict. While his intuition was correct, execution errors led to significant losses when he bought low and then sold, resulting in some severe setbacks.
Eugene revealed that he resumed trading shortly thereafter, engaging in beta trading as Bitcoin rose from $60,000 to $69,000. Meanwhile, he also traded ENA in perpetual contracts and accumulated some decent spot positions for long-term holding. He bought SOL at the end of the month at a low but sold too early, only making a short-term profit from $164 to $175 before exiting. After selling SOL, he became overly impatient and shorted Bitcoin, which then broke through $70,000; he has since liquidated his positions. He expects extreme volatility in the market over the next two weeks, feeling that both bulls and bears will face significant challenges, urging users to manage risks effectively.
Matrixport reported a surge in Bitcoin demand due to the increased likelihood of Trump’s election victory and rising ETF purchase volumes. When U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump was first elected in November 2016, Bitcoin was priced at about $700, and it significantly appreciated during his first year in office. Although a single data point is insufficient to establish a trend, market optimism remains high, with many believing that if Trump is re-elected, regulatory relaxations could lead to further gains in Bitcoin.
Currently, betting markets estimate Trump’s election probability at as high as 66.5%, potentially becoming one of the largest margins in history. Concurrently, Bitcoin demand continues to rise, with recent daily ETF purchases reaching $800 million, further reducing the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges.
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that when people invest in Bitcoin, they are effectively placing two bets: one on Bitcoin successfully becoming a new store of value, and the other on governments continuing to print fiat currency, thereby increasing demand for value-storing assets. With the demand for traditional store-of-value assets surging, more investors are inclined to hold value assets. Both Bitcoin and gold serve as hedges against inflation, and the growing investment in value-storing assets, combined with the continuous devaluation of fiat currency, could quickly push Bitcoin’s price into six figures. Bitcoin could reach $200,000 without the need for the dollar to collapse.
K33 Research released a report analyzing that Bitcoin has not shown signs of the frenzy observed in March, indicating that there is still room for price increases. Despite a more than 8% growth in Bitcoin trading volume over the past week, the volume remains sluggish, averaging $2.6 billion in daily trading, nearly half of the levels seen in the first quarter of this year. The relatively calm market activity suggests that the market is accumulating healthily and gradually, rather than engaging in FOMO buying. Additionally, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached a multi-year low, reflecting a shift in focus within the cryptocurrency domain toward Bitcoin. The current rebound in Bitcoin, nearing new highs, lacks the typical excitement, suggesting that Bitcoin is a mature asset poised for continued growth under favorable market conditions and the upcoming elections.
Compared to the speculative trading surge in March and April, the current futures contract market shows a more balanced environment with lower leverage. Bitcoin’s annualized funding rate currently averages 10.83%, well below the high rate of 32.17% seen in the first quarter, indicating a calmer and more cautious attitude among investors. CME futures contracts also reflect this stability. The report concludes that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs indicates strong institutional investor interest, supporting expectations for continued price increases, especially given that retail investors’ sense of urgency in the current rebound is far less than anticipated.
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