Bitcoin hit a new high of $93,265 this week before retreating, but the most popular track since Trump’s election remains MEME coins. Additionally, concerns about inflation resurging under Trump’s administration seem to have shifted market sentiment this week. The following is a summary of key events this week, on-chain data updates, and important events to watch next week.
(Previous Recap: Powell’s hawkish stance “no rush to cut rates” sends Bitcoin down to $86,600, U.S. stocks plunge, October PPI shows inflation remains sticky)
(Background Supplement: DappRadar Weekly Report: Bitcoin reaches new highs, Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, Ethereum recovers)
**Bitcoin Dynamics:** Powell’s hawkish stance “no rush to cut rates” led to Bitcoin prices dropping to $86,600, with its market cap surpassing silver to become the world’s 8th largest asset.
**MEME Sector Heat:** This week, the average increase in Memecoins was 60%, significantly outpacing other sectors.
**Fed Rate Cut Progress:** Soros’ ally stated that declaring victory over inflation is premature, as it could re-emerge.
**Market Heat:** Upbit’s cryptocurrency trading volume surpassed the Korean stock market; Glassnode reports that Bitcoin has entered an “euphoric phase.”
**Financial Regulatory Commission:** The registration system for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) will be implemented by the end of the year.
**Arthur Hayes:** Predicts Bitcoin will rise to $1 million due to unlimited quantitative easing (QE) policies.
**18 U.S. States Sue the SEC:** Alleging unconstitutional overreach and unfair treatment of the cryptocurrency industry.
**Trump Appoints Musk to Lead Government Efficiency Department (DOGE):** Musk’s resurgence has sparked another wave of related meme coin fever.
**Sentiment and Sectors**
1. **Fear & Greed Index**
This week, the market sentiment indicator rose from 75 (greedy) to 88 (extremely greedy), remaining in the (greedy) to (extremely greedy) range throughout the week.
2. **Funding Rate Heatmap**
This week, Bitcoin’s funding rate reached a high of 58.59% and a low of 6.13%, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
The funding rate heatmap shows the trend of funding rate changes for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green for zero rate to yellow for a 50% positive rate, and black for negative rates. The white K-line chart displays Bitcoin price fluctuations, contrasting with the funding rates.
3. **Sector Performance**
According to Artemis data, the average increase in the blockchain sector this week was 7.2%, with MemeCoin, Store of Value, and Gen 1 Smart Contracts leading at 60.9%, 36.0%, and 21.1%, respectively.
This week, Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 15.3% and 3.8%, respectively.
The three worst-performing sectors were Staking (-12.4%), Data Availability (-10.2%), and Bridge (-6.4%).
**Market Liquidity**
1. **Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply**
This week, the total cryptocurrency market cap increased from $2.68 trillion to $3.06 trillion, a gain of $380 billion, representing a 14.2% increase. Bitcoin’s market share is 55.42%, and Ethereum’s is 12.21%.
Stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $167.81 billion to $177.14 billion, a gain of $9.33 billion, or about 5.6%.
2. **Significant Increase in Potential Buying Power on Exchanges**
Data shows a net inflow trend in exchange assets this week, particularly with a large influx of USDT after the U.S. election. This phenomenon may indicate that investors are preparing for upcoming market volatility, and the inflow of funds into exchanges suggests an increase in short-term buying demand.
Additionally, the highest daily net inflow reached $7.5 billion, surpassing the previous bull market’s record of $6.7 billion, indicating ample market liquidity.
3. **Top 100 Market Gainers**
This week, the crypto market saw strong gains, with PNUT leading at +1,426%, and DOGE and PEPE also experiencing significant increases, reflecting a rise in investor risk appetite and substantial gains in MEME coins. According to Blockchaincenter data, the altcoin season index is currently 27, indicating that Bitcoin remains the dominant force, while altcoins are relatively less active.
**Bitcoin Technical Indicators**
1. **Bitcoin Spot ETF Fund Inflows Surge**
This week, Bitcoin ETF fund inflows reached $2.3215 billion, nearly doubling last week’s amount. On November 11, a single day’s inflow set a historical second-highest record at $1.12 billion.
2. **Bitcoin Rainbow Chart**
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($87,000) falls within the “consider dollar-cost averaging” range.
3. **Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss Performance**
The Bitcoin net realized profit/loss indicator shows that the market is recovering, with the ratio structure of profits and losses similar to early March this year, when Bitcoin prices peaked in mid-March. The increase in this indicator reflects more investors realizing profits, turning market sentiment positive and potentially signaling further price increases. However, caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks, especially after rapid gains, which could lead to profit-taking.
4. **Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Reducing Positions**
On-chain data shows a significant decrease in long-term Bitcoin holder net positions, with red bars indicating increasing selling pressure. Since mid-October, the net position change of long-term holders has turned negative, suggesting that some long-term investors are beginning to take profits. This phenomenon is particularly evident as Bitcoin prices approach new highs, indicating that some capital is choosing to take profits at these levels.
Long-term holder dynamics are worth monitoring, especially changes in holdings at high market levels, which may signal potential market corrections or capital rotation.
5. **Strong On-Chain Buying Power for Bitcoin**
On-chain data shows that this week, the long-term and short-term holder data for Bitcoin indicates that as prices rise, short-term holder (red line) positions have significantly increased, while long-term holder (blue line) positions have decreased. This trend suggests that short-term investors are actively entering the market during the price uptrend, further boosting market vitality. Conversely, some long-term holders are choosing to take profits at this time.
An increase in short-term holder positions typically reflects optimistic market sentiment, as short-term capital is more susceptible to market news. However, a decrease in long-term holder positions may reduce market stability, and attention should be paid to potential short-term pullback risks.
6. **Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Reaches New High**
Data shows that this week, Bitcoin futures open interest on exchanges rapidly increased from $46.53 billion to $56.3 billion, not only setting a new historical high for open interest but also coinciding with a new high in Bitcoin prices, breaking the March record. Market enthusiasm for Bitcoin investment remains high; however, investors should be aware of potential increased volatility.
7. **Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index**
This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index turned positive from negative last week, indicating stronger demand for Bitcoin in the U.S. market, driving up the premium.
A positive premium difference may suggest that U.S. investors have greater purchasing power compared to global investors.
8. **Short-Term On-Chain Cost Basis Band**
This week, the Bitcoin short-term on-chain cost basis band shows the price approaching the upper bound (red line) at $96,800, reflecting heightened market sentiment and increased willingness of short-term investors to realize profits. The long-term holder realized price (blue line) is $68,700.
In the short term, the price may face resistance at the upper bound, increasing the risk of a pullback. It is necessary to observe whether the price can stabilize at higher levels to support further gains.
**Key Ethereum Technical Indicators**
1. **Ethereum Spot ETF Fund Inflows**
This week, Ethereum ETF fund inflows amounted to approximately $6.421 billion. On November 11, a single day’s inflow set a historical record at $295.5 million.
2. **Bitcoin Correlation**
This week’s data shows correlations between BTC and ETH and SOL at 0.24 and 0.72, respectively. Compared to last week’s high correlations, the correlations between major tokens have decreased, indicating weaker market consensus. Most major tokens have correlation coefficients below last week’s 0.90 level, reflecting increased volatility in market risk preferences. TON and BNB still have low correlations with other major cryptocurrencies, such as 0.38 and 0.21 with BTC.
This week’s data suggests a decline in overall market联动性,投资者对市场未来趋势的看法分歧加大。
3. **DeFi Market Total Locked Value (TVL)**
This week’s data shows that the DeFi market total locked value increased from $104.917 billion to $96.553 billion last week.
**1. Powell’s Hawkish Stance “No Rush to Cut Rates” Sends Bitcoin Down to $86,600, U.S. Stocks Plunge, October PPI Shows Inflation Remains Sticky**
The U.S. October PPI data released last night showed that controlling inflation remains challenging. While the U.S. stock market reacted mildly, Bitcoin broke through the $89,000 level. (Continue Reading)
**2. Upbit Cryptocurrency Trading Volume Surpasses Korean Stock Market, Overheating Signs Emerge Again?**
Influenced by Trump’s potential America First policy, the Korean stock market has recently been hit. Conversely, the Korean cryptocurrency market is booming, but this may also signal an impending market reversal. (Continue Reading)
**3. Arthur Hayes’ New View: Trump’s Presidency Will Unleash Unlimited QE, Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million**
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled “Black or White,” describing future U.S. government fiscal measures and stating that Bitcoin could reach $1 million under continuous credit creation in the U.S. (Continue Reading)
**4. China’s Stimulus Policy Falls Short, A-Shares Surge and Retreat, PBOC Outlines Five Goals to Rescue the Market**
China announced new fiscal stimulus policies on August 8, but the reaction in the A-share market was relatively calm compared to the surge following the stimulus announcement in late September. After briefly surging at the opening today, the market quickly retreated. Recently, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng outlined five policy directions, including increasing monetary policy adjustments, strengthening financial regulation, and guiding financial institutions to support emerging industries. (Continue Reading)
**5. Bitcoin’s Market Cap Surpasses Silver to Become the “8th Largest Global Asset”; Analysts: BTC Spot ETF Likely to Exceed Gold ETF by January Next Year**
Following Trump’s victory, Bitcoin surged by $22,000 in one week, reaching a new historical high of $89,575 this morning. Its market cap surpassed silver, making it the 8th largest global asset. Bloomberg analysts estimate that the asset size of Bitcoin ETFs is likely to exceed that of gold ETFs by January next year, marking one year since their listing. (Continue Reading)
**6. Soros Ally Warns: Inflation Rebound Likely, Fed May Be Too Optimistic**
The U.S. Federal Reserve began a four-year hiatus in rate cuts in September, reigniting enthusiasm in the asset market. However, Stanley Druckenmiller, an ally of Soros, stated that the Fed’s declaration of victory over inflation is premature, and inflation could resurface. (Continue Reading)
**7. CZ Reminds: Don’t Be Greedy! Bitcoin Sets Four Consecutive Daily Records, Don’t Put All Eggs in One Basket**
Bitcoin reached a high of $77,200 around 4 AM, setting a new historical record for the fourth consecutive day. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) reminded investors to manage risks, avoid putting all eggs in one basket, and guard against excessive greed. (Continue Reading)
**8. Trump’s Return Brings Uncertainty! Central Bank Highlights Three Major Financial and Economic Impacts on Taiwan: Tariff Barriers Could Cause Disasters**
With Trump returning to the White House, his style could bring significant uncertainty to global political and economic situations. Central Bank Governor Yang Jindong stated today that Trump’s new trade policies could bring three major impacts: slowing global economic growth momentum and rising inflation, weakening Chinese economic momentum, and affecting global financial market stability due to uncertainties in U.S. monetary policy. (Continue Reading)
**9. Glassnode Warns: Bitcoin Enters “Euphoric Phase,” Profit-Taking Correction Possible Within 10 Days**
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin has entered a highly profitable “euphoric phase.” Historically, such phases have seen corrections about 22 days later, and with the current phase lasting 12 days, a correction could come within 10 days. Additionally, realized profits in November have reached $20.4 billion, and if they exceed the historical peak of $30 billion, it could trigger sell-offs. (Continue Reading)
**10. Trump’s Victory Sends Gold Down for Five Days! Breaking $2,600, Declining Safe-Haven Demand Could Be a Concern for Bitcoin?**
Following Trump’s victory, gold prices have continued to fall, breaking the $2,600 level yesterday and falling to $2,554 today, marking five consecutive days of decline. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to its lowest point in 11 months, with analysts noting that capital is being reallocated from traditional safe havens like gold to cryptocurrencies. (Continue Reading)
**1. 18 U.S. States Jointly Sue the SEC: Unconstitutional Overreach, Unfair Treatment of the Cryptocurrency Industry**
The attorneys general of 18 U.S. states have jointly sued the SEC, accusing it of “unconstitutional overreach” in its enforcement actions against the cryptocurrency industry. The lawsuit claims that the SEC lacks a clear regulatory framework and enforces rules harshly, hindering state economic management autonomy. This lawsuit could redefine the federal and state power distribution in U.S. crypto regulation. (Continue Reading)
**2. Anti-Fraud Initiative: Internet “Real Name Ad System” to Take Effect on January 1, FSC: VASP Registration System to Launch by Year-End**
FSC Chairman Peng Jinlong stated in the Legislative Yuan yesterday that the FSC supports the internet real-name ad system proposed by the Digital Development Ministry to combat fraud. He also announced that the virtual asset service provider (VASP) registration system will take effect on January 1, 2024. (Continue Reading)
**3. FTX Sues Binance and CZ! Demands “Return of $1.8 Billion” for Sky-High Stock Repurchase, What’s Happening?**
The bankrupt exchange FTX has recently filed a lawsuit against Binance and its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), demanding the return of funds paid by SBF to CZ for a sky-high stock repurchase in 2021. (Continue Reading)
**4. Bhutan’s National Bitcoin Holdings Reach One-Third of GDP, Can Bitcoin Become a New Global Reserve Favorite?**
As Bitcoin enters a new upward cycle, national-level “貔貅” (accumulators) like Bhutan are reaping substantial rewards. With major economies like the U.S. gradually adopting a more positive and open attitude towards Bitcoin, more countries are expected to list Bitcoin as a national reserve asset in the future. (Continue Reading)
**5. FBI Raids Polymarket CEO’s Home, Seizes Phones and Computers, Biden Administration Engages in Political Retaliation?**
Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket gained attention for accurately predicting Trump’s victory. However, after the election, the Biden administration took legal action against Polymarket. The U.S. Department of Justice launched an investigation into Polymarket for allegedly accepting transactions from U.S. users, and the FBI seized the phones and electronic devices of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan on Wednesday. (Continue Reading)
**6. South Korean Influencer Raises $21 Million Selling Garbage Coins, 620,000 Subscriber Youtuber’s Home Filled with Money, Leads Fraud Ring**
South Korean police announced today that they arrested 215 individuals involved in investment consulting companies, detaining 12 people, including the head Youtuber Mr. A (pseudonym). The group is suspected of defrauding over 15,000 people of 32.56 billion won by promoting “investment in cryptocurrencies.” (Continue Reading)
**11/18 (Monday)**
– Hong Kong: October Unemployment Rate, Previous: 3.0%
**11/19 (Tuesday)**
– Eurozone: October Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY), Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.7%
**11/20 (Wednesday)**
– UK: October Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY), Previous: 1.7%
**11/21 (Thursday)**
– Hong Kong: October Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY), Previous: 2.20%
– USA: Initial Jobless Claims
– USA: November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Previous: 10.3
– USA: October Existing Home Sales, Previous: 3.84M
**11/22 (Friday)**
– Germany: Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP, qoq), Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%
– USA: November Manufacturing PMI, Previous: 48.5
– USA: November Services PMI, Previous: 55.0
**Recommended Interview Videos**
1. ABS: “The Evolution of Cryptocurrencies” — Dr. Han Lin, Founder of Gate.io (English)
(Video Link)
**Top 5 Popular Articles This Week**
1. **Five Years Ago Today: Hangzhou Housewife Buys 60 Bitcoins, Sent to Mental Hospital by Husband…**
Recently, a screenshot of an article from five years ago has gone viral in the crypto community. The article describes how a Hangzhou woman spent over 3 million RMB to buy 60 bitcoins, leading her husband to send her to a mental hospital for treatment. At the time, the cost of Bitcoin was between $7,000 and $10,000. If she held onto them for five years, she would have made nearly 350 million RMB. (Continue Reading)
2. **Dogecoin Becomes 6th Largest Cryptocurrency! “Aiming for 1U,” DOGE to Replicate 2021 Gains?**
Trump’s victory has triggered a surge in the crypto market, with Dogecoin (DOGE) briefly breaking the $0.30 mark, rising 27.1% in 24 hours, and surpassing USDC to become the 6th largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The recent surge in Dogecoin is likely a pre-reaction to expectations of renewed attention due to the implementation of the “Government Efficiency Department” and Musk’s leadership. (Continue Reading)
3. **Rich Dad Reveals Bitcoin Holdings “73 BTC,” Plans to Increase to 100: Bull Run Not Over!**
Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” revealed in a post today that he bought his first Bitcoin at $6,000 each and currently holds 73 BTC, planning to increase his holdings to 100 BTC in a year. Looking ahead, Lookonchain analyzed five indicators suggesting that Bitcoin’s price has not yet reached the peak of this bull run. (Continue Reading)
4. **Arthur Hayes’ New View: Trump’s Presidency Will Unleash Unlimited QE, Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million**
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled “Black or White,” describing future U.S. government fiscal measures and stating that Bitcoin could reach $1 million under continuous credit creation in the U.S. (Continue Reading)
5. **Making Millions in 2 Seconds: How a Post-00 Student Became a Billionaire Using Information Arbitrage?**
In the fast-paced crypto market, how do speed and information advantages become key to success? This article explores the extraordinary story of young trader Vida, who transformed from an ordinary student into a billionaire trader in just a few years. (Continue Reading)
