Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have recently fallen below 570,000 coins, marking the lowest level since January of this year. Notably, two months after Binance’s Bitcoin reserves dropped to similar levels in January, the price of Bitcoin surged by 90%. Is history about to repeat itself?
(Background: Brother Maji transferred 12% of Cream to Binance; will Hyperliquid’s support lead to a sharp increase?)
(Additional context: Binance is rumored to be accumulating a large amount of Kaspa in preparation for launching spot trading; how credible is this news?)
According to data from CryptoQuant, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have recently dropped below 570,000 coins, creating the lowest level since January of this year. When exchange reserves decrease, it typically indicates that investors are transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets and have confidence in its long-term price trends.
It is noteworthy that Binance’s Bitcoin reserves also fell to similar levels in January, and two months later, on March 13, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed by 90% to $73,679, setting a new high at that time. If Bitcoin follows the same pattern again, at the current price, it could potentially reach $187,500 within a few months.
CryptoQuant analysts point out that a peak in withdrawals typically signifies that the market is accumulating positive momentum.
Additionally, the arrival of an altcoin season is attracting market attention. Based on previous bullish experiences, when Bitcoin’s market share remains at a high of 60%, an altcoin season is expected to occur shortly thereafter. Currently, according to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s market share is 58.4%, slightly below the critical 60% level. Some analysts believe that a level below 60% may suggest a rotation of the market towards other crypto assets.
When will Bitcoin return to $100,000?
Since Bitcoin first broke through the psychological barrier of $100,000 on the 5th, it has consistently remained below this level since the 19th, raising market concerns about when Bitcoin will return to this major threshold. Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, believes that Bitcoin may exceed $105,000 after liquidity rebounds post-Christmas holiday.
Ryan Lee analyzes that the recent downward trend in Bitcoin is a typical phenomenon of insufficient liquidity during holiday periods:
After Christmas, market activity usually becomes active again, and funds are expected to be actively allocated to areas that may benefit from Trump’s impending return to office… The expected trading range for Bitcoin this week is between $94,000 and $105,000.
Previously, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that based on previous bull market cycles, the average duration from the first historical high to the last historical high during each bull market is 318 days. If we use Bitcoin’s first historical high reached on March 5 of this year as the starting point, Bitcoin may reach a new high in this bull market by January 17 of next year.
Vetle Lunde mentioned that in this cycle, based on previous bull market peaks, Bitcoin’s peak could potentially land at $146,000, while if previous market capitalization is used as a reference, Bitcoin could reach a maximum of $212,500 during this cycle.
