CryptoQuant has released data indicating that the buy volume of Bitcoin on Binance has gradually formed higher lows since October 28, suggesting an increasing market buying pressure. Bitcoin is expected to rise in the coming days; however, Matrixport’s latest weekly report warns that the Bitcoin bull market in 2025 may face multiple potential risk factors.
(Background: $14 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire today, Deribit: which will become a key market driver; a rebound in altcoins is expected.)
(Additional context: “Rich Dad” claims that buying 1 Bitcoin can lead to wealth; do you believe it?)
Since October 19, Bitcoin has consistently remained below the critical psychological barrier of $100,000, raising concerns about when it will return to this significant level. Positive signs have emerged, as CryptoQuant analysts stated today that the buy volume of Bitcoin on Binance has reached $8.3 billion, and since October 28, this buy volume has gradually formed higher lows:
This indicates an increase in investor interest and ongoing buying pressure. Although the market may experience corrections due to overheating, the continued rise in buy volume suggests that Bitcoin could increase in the coming days.
Analysts explain that the buy volume on Binance refers to the total buy transactions executed by takers on the exchange. Takers are market participants who buy at the current prices on the order book, utilizing existing market liquidity. An increase in this indicator typically signifies rising investor interest, strengthening buying pressure, and strong market demand, which may lead to price increases.
It is noteworthy that CryptoQuant also released data yesterday indicating that Bitcoin reserves on Binance have recently dropped below 570,000, the lowest level since January this year. When exchange reserves decrease, it usually indicates that investors are transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets, showing confidence in its long-term price trend.
After Binance’s Bitcoin reserves fell to similar levels two months ago, the price of Bitcoin surged by 90% to $73,679, setting a new high at that time. If Bitcoin follows the same pattern again, it could potentially reach $187,500 within a few months based on current prices.
Risks Facing the 2025 Bitcoin Bull Market
However, Matrixport’s latest weekly report today warns that the 2025 Bitcoin bull market may face various potential risk factors. Firstly, BlackRock has recently indicated that the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin protocol may not fully guarantee the supply cap of 21 million coins. This statement has sparked discussions but should be viewed in the appropriate context.
Recent developments, such as Google’s announcement of its 105-qubit Willow quantum chip, have reignited discussions regarding the potential long-term threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin’s security. Although these threats are still in the early stages, lacking the scale and stability to directly disrupt Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses, the theoretical risks warrant attention.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve has recently raised its inflation expectations, partly due to concerns over potential tariffs under Trump. However, the actual impact may be limited. Matrixport believes that inflation issues may not be significant next year, providing room for the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance.
Matrixport further points out that historical data shows Bitcoin bull markets often peak during times of heightened regulatory pressure. As the U.S. gradually resolves regulatory issues, such as the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the risks associated with the end of this bull market may be driven by other factors. If Trump is elected, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy, introducing new uncertainties for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.
