US President Trump has launched a tariff war, impacting global financial markets. According to the latest analysis by QCP Capital, market volatility is expected to continue until negotiations between Trump and Canada, Mexico, and the implementation of EU tariff policies. Matrixport also states that whether the 21-week moving average line falls will be a key indicator of whether the Bitcoin bull market will continue.
(Background: Bitcoin crashes to 91,000 USDT. Binance and OKEX off-exchange premiums break 6%)
(Background: Trump’s tariff war wreaks havoc! Bitcoin falls below 96,000, Ethereum loses $2900, XRP plummets 20%… over 450,000 people liquidate $1.2 billion)
US President Trump has officially triggered a tariff war against Canada, Mexico, and China, causing a shock in global financial markets and a subsequent slump in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $91,000 today, with Ethereum falling below $2,100, and other altcoins experiencing even more severe declines.
QCP Capital predicts that the market impact of the tariff war will continue.
Regarding the market impact of the tariff war, QCP Capital released the latest analysis today, stating that the White House has imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% import tax on Chinese goods. In response, Canada has retaliated with a 25% tariff on $10.6 billion worth of US goods, and it is expected that Mexico will follow suit.
QCP Capital states that the first round of trade policies by the Trump administration has already caused severe market volatility globally. The US bond yield curve is flattening, with a rise in the 2-year yield and a decline in the 10-year yield, indicating increased market concerns about short-term inflation. At the same time, the long-term risk of a trade war may hinder global economic growth.
The price difference between gold in New York and London is widening, which not only reflects the closing of popular futures-to-spot trades (EFP trades), but also suggests logistical challenges in transferring gold between different vaults. This serves as a reminder that there is still uncertainty about the range affected by tariffs in the market.
QCP Capital mentioned that the tariff war has caused a general decline in global stock markets, a slight drop in gold prices, and a surge in crude oil prices. In the cryptocurrency market, which serves as one of the risk indicators, there was a forced liquidation of nearly $2 billion before the US stock market opened, with ETH experiencing a greater decline than BTC.
This decoupling phenomenon in the market reinforces the view that today’s hedging market is mainly the result of rebalancing cross-asset portfolios, rather than a single asset event. Volatility is expected to continue as Trump negotiates with Canada and Mexico tonight, while claiming that tariffs on the EU “will definitely happen.”
The 21-week moving average line is a key indicator of a bull market
At the same time, Matrixport’s analysis suggests that although the market had already widely anticipated Trump’s tariff policies, it still came as a surprise. This may be because the market’s attention was primarily focused on DeepSeek last week, rather than Trump’s policies.
However, Matrixport believes that more importantly, retail investors have been insufficiently involved in this market correction. With tariff uncertainty expected to persist in the coming days, this uncertainty is currently affecting the market adjustment.
Matrixport states that a simple and effective method to determine whether Bitcoin is still in a bull market is to observe the 21-week moving average line, which has historically been regarded as an important indicator for observing broad market trends. As long as Bitcoin stays above this level, the bull market will still exist. However, if it falls below this level, traders should adopt risk management strategies.
