Holding onto coins while waiting for a price increase is foolish; if you don’t sell at the right time, you’re done for. This article is sourced from a piece written by 0xFinish, a member of 0xTrack, and compiled, translated, and authored by Block Beats.
(Background: Solana’s largest DeFi founder, Ben Chow, has been exposed for “colluding with Kelsier Venture,” using M3M3, $LIBRA, $MELANIA, etc., to harvest over $200 million.)
(Additional Context: Watch out! The Argentine president retweeted a $LIBRA purchase guide, quickly distancing himself after a 100% surge: “This is not promotion.” The price has fallen back to its original point.)
The author reviews the birth of PumpFun, the differences between the Bitcoin halving, the 2021 scams, and the current market cycle, while reminding investors to be cautious of limited liquidity in the current market environment, maintain a clear selling strategy, and closely follow narratives during market rotations to avoid excessive FOMO. At the same time, it is essential to keep some profits in stablecoins and continue accumulating long-term quality assets like BTC.
Below is the original content (edited for readability and understanding):
This cycle is extremely tough, worse than any previous cycle. Many even refer to it as a “criminal cycle,” due to the increasing number of “rug pulls” and projects that raise concerns.
The purpose of this article is to reflect on the past and attempt to forecast what lies ahead for us, who only wish to succeed.
The Birth of PumpFun
On January 19, 2024, PumpFun was born, forever changing the landscape of meme coins. Everyone got the chance to launch a token, regardless of their age, profession, or nationality.
The initial hype was not high, but PumpFun began to gain momentum in March 2024, with early projects such as $MICHI and $FWOG. Anyone could launch a meme coin in seconds, altering the entire market.
As more and more tokens emerged, PumpFun became a fair issuance platform with no insiders taking advantage. However, the withdrawal fees were substantial.
Since its launch, PumpFun has earned over 2.86 million $SOL, approximately $577 million. It may be one of the most successful startup projects in history.
This liquidity has been permanently withdrawn and pocketed by PumpFun’s developers. But I believe this is a critical reason that makes this cycle different. We will explore this further later.
Bitcoin Halving
Next is a significant moment in the current cycle. On April 20, 2024, the Bitcoin mining reward was halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. When the first ETF was approved on January 10, 2024, many thought this could be a “sell the news” event, but in reality, we witnessed a new ATH.
ETF + halving is the strongest bullish combination for BTC, as many have been waiting for institutional liquidity to begin flowing into the market. And that is precisely what happened. Fidelity, BlackRock, and MicroStrategy have been buying daily, continuously injecting liquidity into the market.
This gave people hope. They thought this bull market would be similar to previous ones, but this time, everything is different.
The market always works against the masses; meaning, if retail investors are bullish, the market is likely to decline, and vice versa. Perhaps this is what is happening here, and we are about to reveal it.
Your Expectations Are the Problem
Reflecting on the cycles of 2017 and 2021, the situations were very similar. Making money wasn’t difficult and didn’t require any special knowledge. At that time, there were 10-20 well-known mainstream coins that everyone kept accumulating.
First, BTC increased, followed by ETH, which served as the beta asset of the cycle, usually yielding higher returns; then we would shift from ETH to other mainstream coins, and finally to some smaller altcoins.
This is why many decided to skip the BTC stage in 2024 and directly invest in ETH or other altcoins; the logic is straightforward. If ETH can increase fivefold, and larger altcoins can increase tenfold, why wait for a 2-3x return on BTC?
This logic is very direct; however, the “masses” did not consider that this cycle might be different. The number of projects, tokens, and meme coins is 100 times that of before, and everyone has been buying familiar tokens like $DOT, $ATOM, and $ADA, waiting for promised tenfold returns.
As a result, when liquidity began flowing into altcoins, the sheer number of new projects left old projects behind.
Scams in 2021 Were Different from Now
I just saw @Overdose_AI making a valid point and decided to add it here. Back in 2021, the scammers engaging in “rug pulls” were quite creative; as long as they weren’t overly greedy, they almost allowed everyone to jump ship.
Terra $LUNA was managed by Do Kwon.
FTX was run by Sam Fried.
3AC invested for a long time before crashing.
Alameda pushed different narratives and manipulated the market.
Back then, scams were relatively difficult and required a certain level of intelligence. Now, people are merely using celebrities, influencers, and even powerful national leaders to promote their worthless projects.
People have become accustomed to gambling, FOMOing into $TRUMP and $MELANIA, deciding to recover losses through $CAR or $LIBRA, only to end up losing all their money.
I know 10 to 15 excellent traders who once invested in $LIBRA through DCA, seizing opportunities while waiting for a rebound, while insiders made over $100 million off them.
It’s Time to Adapt
It’s time to understand that cycles will never be exactly the same; altcoins are not merely the beta of BTC or ETH; they represent an entirely different niche that brings more risk and more opportunities.
You cannot just continue to go long on $DOT or $ATOM just because BTC has reached a new high, as that was effective in 2021.
Make no mistake; I still have a positive outlook on BTC, believing it will remain one of the best compounding assets over the next 10 to 20 years, but the returns will resemble those of stocks, no longer the easy 200% annual growth.
Conclusions to Remember for This Cycle
1. Holding onto coins while waiting for a price increase is foolish; if you don’t sell at the right time, you’re done for. @MustStopMurad has been telling you to hold, while nearly all of his meme coins have dropped 80%-90% since their ATH.
2. You need to have a clear selling strategy. I know this might sound harsh, but that’s the nature of the market; you must determine when to exit before making a trade.
3. Rotate narratives. Recently, we have experienced a wild market rotation from meme coins to AI Agents, then to $TRUMP, etc. If at any point you fail to keep up, it is almost guaranteed that most of your gains will be wiped out. Always follow market narratives and remember that liquidity is limited.
4. “Timing” is always better than “preempting.” Don’t overthink it; find the right timing to enter, but don’t stress too much while waiting.
5. Always convert a portion of your profits into stablecoins. No matter how much you believe in a particular protocol, continue accumulating BTC, as it is still better than most stock or real estate opportunities.
To be honest, I don’t know whether we will go down or up next; I currently have positions on both sides. If the market declines, I will continue to buy more BTC and $ETH.
If the market rises, I have enough altcoins to avoid FOMO, and I know I can profit through trading and help my followers.
I hope this cycle is not over yet; the current consolidation of BTC will determine our trajectory for the next 2-3 months.
