This Bull Market Is Unprecedented: Some Controversial Truths May Make You Rethink Your Position at the Table.
(Background: PlanB Claims the Real Bull Market Has Not Yet Started: Bitcoin’s Target for This Year is $160,000, the Four-Year Cycle Convention May Be Broken)
(Background Supplement: Bitcoin Surges Past $87,000 — Federal Reserve Chair Powell: Slowing Down Balance Sheet Reduction Starting in April, Expected to Cut Rates Twice This Year, Interest Rates Remain Unchanged… Five Key Points Overview)
The cryptocurrency market is like a drunken man, stumbling into 2025 while closely following the bull market at the end of 2024. This bull market feels both familiar and fundamentally strange.
Headlines of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 at the end of 2024, the wild surge of Memecoins like a slot machine, and Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies ignite a feast reminiscent of Beeple’s artworks, captivating yet unsettling.
However, beneath the hype, this cycle is a chaotic mixture of leveraged frenzy, institutional restraint, and macroeconomic wagering, potentially propelling the market to new heights or derailing it. This is not the FOMO-driven frenzy of 2021 fueled by retail investors, but a different beast, as data corroborates this chaos.
This bull market is unprecedented; some controversial truths may make you rethink your position at the table.
01. Leverage Trading: From Tool to Casino Drug, Memecoin Gamblers Are the Winners
Leverage trading is not new, but the scale today is astonishing.
In the 2021 bull market, leverage was merely a side dish; now it is the main course, mixed with the madness of Memecoins. Platforms like Binance and Bybit report a surge in leveraged trading volume, with Binance alone reaching $1.2 trillion in perpetual futures trading volume in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 60% increase from the peak in 2021.
Memecoins, the fallen darlings of these crypto casinos, are the source of the spark, more intense than the fuse igniting the Los Angeles wildfires. A 2025 survey by Security.org found that 68% of Memecoin traders admitted to losing money since entering the market, yet they continue to double down with 50x and 100x leverage like hope-filled doge avatar influencers. Why? Because Dogecoin reached $0.73 (market cap over $100 billion), and the TRUMP token peaked at $15 billion in January 2025, turning trading into a dopamine factory.
This is not rational speculation, but rather a slot machine draped in blockchain technology, where the house always wins. Every day, we hear similar stories, like that of 27-year-old trader Chump, who told Business Insider, “I love watching the digital spikes.” He made $10,000 trading Memecoins, but he is among the lucky ones. Why is a $10,000 trade newsworthy? Because it attracts those who start small and bet big. However, most people are losing money, and the leverage frenzy makes this bull market feel like a steroid-fueled circus.
02. Position Size: Crypto Leverage Math Disrupts Traditional Thinking
Things have become even crazier; the leverage position sizes in the crypto market are quoted in full-risk terms, an incomprehensible scene not seen in traditional markets. A $4 million trade with 50x leverage? That equates to a $200 million market position. In the stock or forex markets, you would only report the $4 million margin, not the amplified bet. This exaggerates appearances and amplifies risk.
Galaxy Research estimates the nominal average leverage position size will be $5.2 million in 2025, up from $1.8 million in 2021. This is a massive leap, driven by platforms throwing 100x leverage at retail investors like candy.
Traditional markets sensibly limit leverage to 10x, while the crypto market’s “full exposure” strategy is a marketing gimmick that turns traders into reckless gamblers. When TRUMP’s whales cashed out $109 million in two days (New York Times, February 2025), it was not skill but a leverage lottery ticket. On the other hand, the counterparty in that trade lost $2 billion. This is not investing; as I have said many times before, this is a zero-sum bloodbath, and the data shows it is larger and uglier than ever.
03. Institutions: Steadily Holding Their Ground While the Circus Burns
Institutional investors, the so-called “smart money,” are not playing around in this leverage circus. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds 550,000 BTC, and hedge funds like Millennium have subscribed to $36 billion worth of Bitcoin ETPs in 2024 (Galaxy, 2025). But they are not chasing the 50x Memecoin surges. A report from Coinbase Institutional indicates that 82% of institutional crypto asset allocations in 2025 are for long-term holding, concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and possibly Solana, focusing on a “strategic reserve” narrative rather than the degradation of short-term trading.
Unlike retail investors who panic-sell at every downturn, institutions are gradually building their positions. Why? Trump’s comments about Bitcoin reserves and ETF approvals have them focused on the long-term outlook of 5-10 years instead of quick doubling.
James Lavish of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund aptly stated at the 2024 New Orleans Investment Conference: “The shift of Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a strategic asset” is real, and institutions are betting it will surpass gold (currently about 11% of gold’s market cap, changing daily). They will ride this bull market but will not be destroyed by leverage; that is the prerogative of retail investors.
04. Trump’s Economic Gamble: A Coin Toss Game of Recession Meets a Crypto Moment
Fast forward to mid-2025, the U.S. economy is on thin ice, and Trump holds the balancing rod. Picton Mahoney’s report in October 2024 estimates a 75% probability of recession due to the yield curve not inverting, rising bankruptcy rates, and a sluggish manufacturing sector.
Trump’s response? Cut spending, impose hefty tariffs, and bet heavily on deregulation. This is a gamble that could either lead to a dollar collapse or ignite a crypto supernova. If inflation surges (with core CPI already at 3.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target), Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative will receive rocket fuel.
The timing is peculiar; InvestingHaven’s timeline analysis predicts a massive bull market will peak mid-year (breaking through in March-April 2025). However, if Trump’s tariffs stifle growth, leaving retail wallets empty, the bull market may stagnate.
The data is mixed; a survey by Security.org shows that 60% of Americans familiar with crypto believe Trump’s return is beneficial for crypto, but some still doubt its safety. This is not a simple catalyst; it is a chaotic coin toss with global ripples.
05. Tariff Hedge or Collapse: The Recession Script for Crypto
Will Trump’s tariffs spark a crypto hedging frenzy, hinder the bull market, or turn digital assets into the ultimate safe haven? The data leans towards the latter.
Coincub predicts that by the end of 2025, daily trading volume in stablecoins will reach $300-$400 billion, up from $100 billion in November 2024, as businesses hedge against foreign exchange risks.
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs, such as real estate, art, and bonds) is exploding, with market value expected to leap from $2.81 billion in 2023 to $9.82 billion by 2030 (Exploding Topics). Why? Liquidity and anti-inflation.
If the U.S. economy stumbles, the decoupling of crypto from the stock market (with correlation dropping to 0.3 in Q1 2025, according to Coinbase data) makes it a magnet for capital flight. But the key is that retail investors are already exhausted; you and I both know that. Economic stagnation could stifle the FOMO fuel needed for the past bull markets. This may be the first bull market dictated by institutions rather than retail investors; it is quite a thought experiment.
06. The Redemption Path for Retail Investors: Greed, Regret, and Empty Pockets
Conversations with crypto veterans reveal an atmosphere mixed with post-traumatic stress disorder and cautious optimism. Many were greedy in 2021, experienced the crash, and now just want to “break even.”
Some have never returned since cashing out at the peak in 2021; I call them the smart ones. Others still trade MeMe daily, chasing small wins of $500 while admitting it is “gambling addiction.”
A 2025 poll by HODL FM found that 73% of long-term holders hope to break even at least in this cycle, but 40% have not re-entered since the 2022 bear market. The data is suffocating.
The truth is, retail investors are out of money. The funds that fueled the bull market of 2021 are gone, and the household savings rate has dropped to 4.9% (Federal Reserve data), down from 7.5% before the pandemic. If this bull market ignites, it will not be driven by the FOMO of parents but by institutional capital; retail investors will either hitch a ride or be left behind. A purely institution-driven bull market? Not only possible but likely a reality.
07. Gambling Won’t Save Us: Where Is the Real Fuel?
Desperation drives traders towards leverage and Memecoins, but that is not enough.
The $2.2 billion in hacker losses and the 19% of crypto holders facing withdrawal obstacles in 2024 are all sending signals of distrust. Betting on MeMe will not inject fresh capital into the market; it is merely rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
New capital must come from elsewhere, such as ETFs (Galaxy forecasts $250 billion AUM), corporate treasuries (MicroStrategy style), or nations (Trump’s 207,000 BTC reserve plan). Without these, this bull market is just a mirage. We must be realistic, right? That is the way to stay ahead and make money.
08. The Open Creator Economy: A Global Marketplace of AI in a Recession
AI is rewriting the rules of the game, and this bull market may give rise to an open creator economy that transcends borders. The surge of on-chain AI agents is expected to reach 1 million by 2025, involving trading, gaming, and building decentralized platforms.
What to trade in a recession? Data suggests: luxury goods (NFT art surged 45% in 2024), essential services (tokenized medical credits), and speculative assets (yes, still Memecoins). AI makes it scalable; think of teenage traders tokenizing TikTok influence. All of this is happening, and I’m confident.
But it is not all sunshine. Masa’s analysis points out that API restrictions and data bottlenecks could hinder growth. If successful, this bull market will become a global wealth transfer, not just a party in the U.S. If it fails, we are back to PVP within the circle.
09. Wealth Replacement: Patience Wins, Impatience Bleeds
The market is Darwinian; patience seizes wealth from the impatient.
This bull market will witness a transfer of wealth from leveraged retail investors to prudent investors. The cycle begins and ends with the same narrative, as Memecoins recede and return.
InvestingHaven predicts that Dogecoin and Shiba Inu will peak again during the MeMe craze and then rebound. But the data is clear; 68% of Memecoin traders are losing money.
Who are the winners? The quietly accumulating institutions and veterans.
10. Summary: Find Your Position When the Music Stops
This bull market is chaotic, with leveraged craziness, institutional restraint, Trump’s wild bets, and the impending creator economy.
It is different because retail is bankrupt, institutions are restrained, and the world watches a potentially successful or failing economic experiment in the U.S.
The data screams volatility but also contains opportunities. Calmly and patiently choose your position; when the music can exit, only those with patience will remain.
