At the End of Q1 2025, the Most Disheartened Crypto Group is Undoubtedly the “E Guardian”
(Background: Vitalik Lands in Taipei! The Mission of the Ethereum Foundation and Where to Go Next? A Complete Answer with New Executive Director Wang Xiaowei (ETH Taipei Direct Report))
(Context: Ethereum Hell Mode: ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Hits 5-Year Low, Failing to Outperform Bitcoin for the First Time in the Halving Cycle)
On one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to its lowest point in nearly five years, at only 0.02193 since May 2020; on the other hand, Ethereum’s “soul figure”—Vitalik’s recent quirky behavior of “meowing” at a robotic dog has left many puzzled and has sparked some dissatisfaction within the Ethereum community.
Amidst the “darkest hour” of Ethereum, with prices falling below $1800, the “ETH Hangzhou” event is in full swing, attracting numerous developers and members of the Ethereum community who are enthusiastically participating in the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem in various ways. Odaily Planet Daily interviewed attendees at “ETH Hangzhou” to gain insights into their perspectives on the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.
When “Butt Decides the Head” Has Failed: 50% Hold 10 or Fewer ETH, 40% Hold 100 or Fewer ETH
At the Demo Day of ETH Hangzhou, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a rough small-sample questionnaire survey among attendees, with a total sample size of around 10 people, including:
- Only 1 person has completely liquidated their ETH;
- 50% hold 1-10 ETH;
- 40% hold 10-100 ETH.
Notably, the individual who liquidated their ETH, @Solomon_NAHHH, mentioned that they had cleared their ETH position a year ago, with some holdings now in SUI; @0x Benniee, who holds a small amount of ETH, believes the Ethereum ecosystem is extremely abstract; among those holding 100 or fewer ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed that they hold a significant amount of ETH shorts.
Development Stage of the ETH Ecosystem: 70% Believe It Has Entered Middle Age
In the 10-person small sample survey, there was a general consensus on the development stage of the Ethereum ecosystem. Among them:
- 20% (2 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its youth;
- 70% (7 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered middle age;
- 10% (1 person) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered old age.
Those holding the first view mainly consider the technical roadmap, asserting that from the perspective of technical implementation, the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its early stages, with many technical routes still in the exploratory phase; conversely, those who believe the ecosystem has entered old age focus on token economics, arguing that based on the ETH issuance cycle and execution phase, the Ethereum ecosystem has indeed entered a relatively fixed old age stage.
Those who think the Ethereum ecosystem has entered middle age primarily view it from the perspective of ecosystem development, asserting that Ethereum is now in a relatively well-established infrastructure phase, with all sub-tracks other than DeFi having been disproven to varying degrees; liquidity and major crypto projects still regard the Ethereum mainnet or EVM environment as the primary ecosystem.
Possibility of New Highs for ETH Price: No Hope Within 3 Years, Next Cycle
When asked whether the “ETH price could break through the previous historical high of nearly $4800 within 1-2 years,” almost everyone held a pessimistic attitude, including “E Guardians” who entered the space in 2019 and “ETH ecosystem Builders” engaged in DeFi project development.
Overall, opinions about the timing of a new high for ETH’s market price mainly fall into the following three categories:
- First category: 2-3 years may be possible. Crypto KOL and Day 1 Global founder @RubyWang, along with crypto KOL and KiteAI CMO @0x Laughing, believe that a new high in ETH price mainly relies on the emergence of new asset issuance methods or new asset types that lead the market.
- Second category: Start looking from 5 years. Day 1 Global founder @Starzq believes that it is difficult for ETH to reach new highs solely on its own; only by relying on the liquidity spillover from BTC or marginal innovations in the Ethereum ecosystem can this be possible. @Freya from Zhejiang University Blockchain Association believes there may be hope in community development or technological breakthroughs.
- Third category: Unknown timing, mainly dependent on application development. @ArtistZhou, @33357 xyz, @WONG_SSH, and @0x PhiloA believe that the new high in ETH’s market price depends on when the L2 draining ETH is eliminated, the implementation of technology roadmaps like Based Rollup, and the mature applications following the exit of NFT players, GameFi players, and even DeFi players who previously bought at high levels.
Additionally, @Solomon_NAHHH speculates that another possibility is that the US ETH ETF could fully liquidate and be taken over by Eastern powers, which might have some potential to impact new highs.
@ConstantinGao, who holds significant ETH shorts, pointed out that the main reason for the unfavorable performance of ETH prices currently lies in the bankruptcy of narratives such as “digital oil” and “world computer.” Now, Ethereum has become a block space leasing business, and after experiencing events like L2 expansion, it is not only being drained but also has its cost of consumption further reduced, leading to the market no longer recognizing the token’s value storage function. In this regard, it is entirely different from BTC, which emphasizes the concept of “digital gold.” The latter has had its latest positioning accepted by the market after abandoning its payment focus. Furthermore, he mentioned that although he does not have a positive outlook on ETH’s price performance in the short term (2 to 3 years), judging by the past development stages of the internet industry, Ethereum still has substantial potential for development. Driven by mature applications, its token consumption demand may experience significant growth, reminiscent of the early dial-up internet phase to the short video and live-streaming sales phase—at which point, ETH prices might gradually reach new highs.
Conclusion: ETH is Not Irreplaceable, but Remains the Main Battlefield of Crypto
Among the many young faces, I observed that there are still numerous young people actively involved in the activities of the ETH ecosystem. Despite the lackluster ETH prices, the ecosystem remains highly decentralized, with both seasoned veterans and newcomers steadfastly committed to the Ethereum ecosystem. As for the price, we can only leave it to time to judge.
