In the Context of Intensifying Global Economic Uncertainty Due to Trump Tariffs, BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes and Digital Asset Financial Services Platform Matrixport Analyzed Yesterday (8th), Indicating that the Depreciation of the Renminbi May Once Again Add Upward Momentum to Bitcoin in the Sino-U.S. Trade Game, and We Still Hope to See an Annual Increase by the End of This Year.
(Background: Arthur Hayes: “Continuously Increasing Bitcoin Holdings During Yesterday’s Decline,” Altcoins Also Entered My Buying Point)
(Additional Background: Is it Time to Enter Bitcoin as it Bounces Back to $80,000? Six Indicators to Help You Determine the Bottom-Fishing Timing)
Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Sent a Dovish Signal Regarding Tariff Negotiations and President Trump Revealed Smooth Consultations with South Korea, Stimulating a Strong Rebound in U.S. Stocks on the Morning of the 8th. However, the Good Times Were Short-Lived as the White House Subsequently Confirmed High Tariffs of Up to 104% on All Chinese Imports Starting from the 9th, Thoroughly Dousing Market Optimism. Bitcoin Briefly Dropped Below $75,000 This Morning, and Ethereum Also Fell Below $1,400, Leading to Continued Market Turmoil as Investors Await Possible Countermeasures from Beijing.
Arthur Hayes: The Depreciation of the Renminbi May Drive Bitcoin Prices Skyward
In this context, Arthur Hayes, the Founder of BitMEX, Known for His Unique Insights, Posted Several Tweets on X Yesterday (8th), Indicating that the U.S. and China, as Two Major Global Economies, Are Currently at an Impasse on Tariffs, and the Final Result May Favor Bitcoin. He Analyzed:
- If Not the Federal Reserve, Then the People’s Bank of China Will Provide Us with the Yachtzee Ingredients (Metaphor for the Catalyst Driving Bitcoin Prices Up).
- Depreciation of the Renminbi = Significant Outflow of Chinese Capital into Bitcoin.
- This Has Been Verified in 2013 and 2015, and Will Continue to Operate in 2025.
- Ignoring China Will Only Lead to Self-Inflicted Consequences.
Arthur Hayes’ Core Argument is Based on the Expectation that the Depreciation of the Renminbi Will Prompt Domestic Chinese Capital to Seek Overseas Hedge Channels. In Response, Ben Zhou, Founder and CEO of Bybit, Echoed Similar Views. He Believes That China is Likely to Attempt to Counteract Tariff Impacts by Depressing the Renminbi Exchange Rate, Adding that Historical Experience Shows That Whenever the Renminbi Depreciates, “Many Chinese Capitals Flow into Bitcoin,” which is Undoubtedly Positive News for Bitcoin Prices.
Historically, There Have Been Several Instances of Significant Depreciation of the Renminbi, Accompanied by Volatility in Bitcoin Prices, Sparking Discussions on the Correlation Between the Two:
- August 2015: The People’s Bank of China Unexpectedly Lowered the Central Parity Rate of the Renminbi Against the U.S. Dollar by Nearly 2%, Marking the Largest Single-Day Drop in Decades. Although There is Controversy Regarding the Causal Relationship Between This Event and Increased Interest in Bitcoin, During This Period, Bitcoin Trading Volume and Attention Indeed Rose.
- August 2019: Against the Backdrop of Escalating Sino-U.S. Trade War, the Renminbi Exchange Rate Broke the Critical Psychological Barrier of 7:1 Against the Dollar. During the Same Time, Bitcoin Prices Soared by 20% in the First Week of the Month. Many Analysts Believed That Chinese Investors Were Viewing Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Renminbi Depreciation and Economic Uncertainty, with Funds Flowing from China into the Bitcoin Market.
Matrixport: The Renminbi is Approaching Key Resistance Levels
In This Context, Matrixport Released a Chart Analysis on X Yesterday, Aligning with Hayes’ Views. The Institution Noted that Following the Depreciation of the Renminbi in 2015, Bitcoin Experienced a Sell-off but Strongly Rebounded by the End of the Year, Ultimately Closing the Year in the Green, and This Year We May See a Similar Historical Replay:
- In 2015, Following the Depreciation of the Renminbi, Bitcoin Experienced a Sell-off but Strongly Rebounded by Year-End, Closing the Year in the Green. We May See a Similar Scene Replay Now, and This Judgment Resonates with Our Bullish View on Gold 18 Months Ago.
- Currently, the USD/CNY Exchange Rate is Set to Break Through Key Technical Resistance Levels, which is Highly Similar to Our Initial Judgment on Gold Being “Artificially Suppressed and Ready to Explode,” Possibly Indicating That Bitcoin is Also About to Experience Rapid Growth.
- Additionally, the Correlation Between USD/CNY and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields is Also Worth Noting. Despite Recent Declines in Treasury Yields, a Rapid Rebound Could Pose Some Short-Term Pressure on Bitcoin’s Upward Momentum.
Today’s Analysis – 2025/04/08
The Renminbi Exchange Rate Approaches Key Resistance Levels, Bitcoin May Welcome a New Round of Upward Movement
#Matrixport#Cryptocurrency#Trading#Trump#BTC#Blockchain#FederalReserve#RMB$BTC#USA#Bitcoin#TreasuryBonds#Gold
Related Reports
- Twitter Founder Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin “Will Fail If Not Used for Everyday Payments,” Will Only Be Value Storage.
- Bitcoin’s 32% Correction: Are Companies Buying BTC as Reserves Still Surviving? Future Concerns Following MicroStrategy’s Imitation Trend.
- Trump’s Confusion Over Tariffs: Bitcoin Spikes to $81,000, U.S. Stocks on a Roller Coaster, Fed’s Rate Cut Expectations Surge in May.