Standard Chartered Bank’s Long-Term Price Prediction for BTC: $200,000 by the End of 2025, $500,000 by 2028.
(Background: Trump declares significant reduction of tariffs on China, will not dismiss Powell, Bitcoin approaches $94,000 as US stocks surge.)
(Context: Is a major breakthrough for Bitcoin on the horizon? How do institutions and KOLs view the future market?)
Geoffrey Kendrick, the Global Head of Crypto Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that although BTC has strengthened its position as a hedge tool in recent weeks, its price has yet to reflect the increasing signs of systemic risk.
In a client report dated April 22, Kendrick warned that the political pressure faced by the U.S. Federal Reserve is exacerbating tensions in the bond market, which may soon spill over into the crypto asset market.
He pointed out that the premium on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has surged to its highest level in 12 years, indicating market concerns over inflation, debt issuance, and particularly the increasing fears surrounding the potential replacement of Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Kendrick stated, “The current actions threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve through a possible replacement of Powell entirely fall under the realm of government-related risks. BTC should soon react to this shift.”
Kendrick categorizes BTC as a hedge tool against two different types of systemic threats: one being private sector collapses, such as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023; the other being public sector credibility shocks, like central bank interventions or concerns over sovereign debt.
Kendrick emphasized that while BTC typically behaves as a risk asset under normal conditions, its true function is revealed during macro pressure events. He added that the recent surge in the premium is an indicator of long-term inflation and interest rate risk, representing an environment in which BTC historically re-establishes its hedging narrative.
Kendrick also pointed out a recent divergence: while the premium has significantly increased in the past few weeks, BTC’s price has stagnated below $100,000. He attributes this lag to investors temporarily focusing on trade-related concerns, including tariffs on the technology sector, which have weakened BTC’s response.
He wrote, “Due to investor attention being temporarily concentrated on the underperformance of tech stocks, BTC has lagged behind the premium. However, when the focus shifts back to central bank credibility issues, BTC will resume its hedging function.”
Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reiterated Standard Chartered Bank’s long-term price prediction for BTC: $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.
He attributes this expected increase to macroeconomic pressures, improved structural investment channels through spot ETFs, and an increasingly mature derivatives market.
Kendrick had previously modeled the growth of BTC’s share in an optimized gold-BTC investment portfolio, believing that as volatility decreases, this will support BTC prices rising in the future, especially under the current U.S. government leadership where institutional access continues to expand.
Kendrick stated, “This could be the necessary condition to achieve BTC’s next historical peak.”
