BTC may be entering a new era characterized by gradual growth driven more by institutions rather than parabolic peaks.
(Background: Trump calls for significant reduction of tariffs on China, and assures that Powell will not be dismissed, as Bitcoin approaches 94,000; U.S. stocks rally together.)
(Background supplement: In-depth analysis: Is Bitcoin’s breakthrough of 93,000 a reversal starting point, or a secondary distribution wave in a downward escape?)
One year after BTC halving: A distinct cycle
One year has passed since BTC’s most recent halving, and the current cycle is showing a markedly different trend from previous ones. Unlike prior cycles which experienced explosive surges after halving, this round has seen a more moderate increase of only 31%, while the previous cycle saw a staggering 436% increase during the same timeframe.
At the same time, indicators such as the MVRV ratio for long-term holders show a sharp decline in unrealized profits, suggesting that the market is maturing and the upward space is being compressed. Overall, these changes imply that BTC may be entering a new era characterized by gradual growth driven more by institutions rather than parabolic peaks.
A different trajectory for the current BTC cycle
The development of the current BTC cycle is clearly different from past cycles, which may indicate a change in how the market reacts to halving events. In earlier cycles (especially from 2012 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2020), BTC typically experienced strong surges during this stage. The post-halving period was usually accompanied by strong bullish momentum and parabolic price movements, primarily fueled by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.
However, the current cycle has taken a different path. Prices did not accelerate after halving; instead, they began to surge well before in October and December 2024, followed by a consolidation in January 2025, and a pullback in late February.
This early surge behavior contrasts sharply with historical patterns, where halving typically acted as a catalyst for significant price increases.
BTC Cycle Comparison. Source: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison
Another evident sign of this evolution is that the intensity of each cycle is diminishing. As BTC’s market capitalization grows, the explosive price increases of earlier years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, during the 2020 to 2024 cycle, BTC rose 436% one year after halving. In contrast, this cycle has seen only a 31% increase over the same timeframe, which is much more modest.
This transition may signify that BTC is entering a new chapter characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the primary driver; factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional capital are playing larger roles.
The rules of the game are changing, and BTC’s trajectory is changing as well.
Nonetheless, it is worth noting that past cycles have also experienced consolidation and pullback phases before resuming an upward trend. While this phase may feel slower or less stimulating, it may still represent a healthy adjustment before the next rally.
In other words, this cycle may still deviate from historical patterns. It might not witness dramatic top bubble bursts, but rather present a more sustained and structurally solid upward trend, driven more by fundamentals than speculation.
Long-term holder MVRV ratio reveals BTC’s maturing market
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio for long-term holders (LTH) has been a reliable indicator of unrealized profits. It indicates the profits long-term investors have gained before they begin to sell. However, over time, this value is declining.
During the 2016 to 2020 cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating substantial paper profits and a clear top forming. By the 2020 to 2024 cycle, this peak sharply declined to 12.2, even as BTC price reached all-time highs.
In the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV ratio so far is only 4.35, reflecting a significant drop. This indicates that long-term holders are realizing far lower profits compared to previous cycles, despite substantial price increases in BTC. This trend is clear: the profit multiples in each cycle are declining.
LTH MVRV of BTC. Source: Glassnode
This is not a coincidence. As the market matures, explosive gains naturally become harder to obtain. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate or stable growth.
The growing market size means that exponentially more capital is required to significantly drive prices upward.
However, this does not confirm that this cycle has peaked. Previous cycles typically included long periods of consolidation or slight pullbacks before reaching new highs.
As institutional investors play an increasingly important role, accumulation phases may last longer. Therefore, the sell-off of peak profits may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.
Nevertheless, if the trend of declining MVRV ratio peaks continues, it may reinforce the view that BTC is transitioning from frenzied, cyclical surges to a more moderate but structured growth model.
The most dramatic price increases may already be behind us, especially for investors entering the market in the later stages of the cycle.
