U.S. Media The Atlantic Analyzes Trade War Implications
The American media outlet The Atlantic recently published an analytical article pointing out that the policies implemented by Trump in the U.S.-China trade war have inherent flaws, which could ultimately lead to the U.S. not benefiting and even facing failure. This may not only shake the U.S.’s leadership position in the global economy but could further threaten Taiwan’s security.
(Background: From Expectation to Disappointment! Poll: Trump’s Economic Policy Approval Hits New Low, Nearly Half Oppose Comprehensive Tariffs)
(Supplementary Background: Is Trump Tired? Suddenly Says “No More Tariffs on China”: Beijing Took the Initiative to Contact Me, ### Very Smart)
Ongoing Focus on the U.S.-China Trade War
The U.S.-China trade war continues to attract global attention. As the two largest economies in the world, the conflict between the U.S. and China raises questions about who will gain the upper hand and who will ultimately lose. The final outcome will not only affect the economies of both countries but also have profound implications for the global geopolitical landscape.
In this context, The Atlantic recently published an analytical article titled “What If China Wins the Trade War?” which delves into the potential directions of the U.S.-China trade conflict.
The article sharply points out that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration against China may incur high economic and geopolitical costs for the U.S. due to strategic missteps. If China emerges as the ultimate winner, it could further exacerbate tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Flaws in Trump’s Tariff Strategy
The Atlantic article first indicates that Trump’s tariff strategy has significant flaws, including:
- Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on Chinese imports by 145% in an attempt to force concessions from China, which does not provide businesses and markets with sufficient time to adapt, inevitably leading to supply chain disruptions and rising prices. This could potentially recreate the “stagflation” dilemma the U.S. faced in the 1970s.
- The Trump administration’s attempts to eliminate significant investments made by the previous administration in semiconductors and clean energy, which would weaken the U.S.’s long-term competitiveness.
- Trump’s failure to coordinate with allies, instead imposing tariffs on allies such as the EU and Japan, which could result in the U.S. becoming isolated in the global trade war.
In contrast, China seems to possess certain advantages in this seemingly passive trade war. On one hand, China is actively expanding trade relations with the EU, Africa, and Latin America. For example, Spain has recently expressed its intention to deepen cooperation with China, and the EU has also resumed electric vehicle trade negotiations with China, indicating that China is filling the void left by U.S. isolationist policies.
On the other hand, the U.S. is far more dependent on Chinese goods than China is on the U.S. market. As the dominant player in the global supply chain, China makes it difficult for the U.S. to find alternative sources. Therefore, a likely outcome would be that China makes symbolic concessions to allow Trump to “save face,” but will not easily compromise and will strive to maintain the initiative in negotiations.
Threats to Taiwan if China Wins
The article emphasizes that if the U.S. continues its current strategy, the U.S.-China trade war may end with the U.S. “surrendering,” such as exempting certain industries from tariffs, which would in fact weaken the effectiveness of its tariffs. This outcome would significantly harm the U.S. economy, leading to rising prices and increased unemployment, while also damaging allies’ trust in the U.S.
Conversely, China could expand its global influence as a result, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, further consolidating its economic and military confidence. The article warns that if China wins the trade war, the U.S.’s global leadership position could decline, and its military commitments in the Western Pacific could be constrained by economic turmoil, thereby threatening Taiwan:
- China’s economic influence would further expand, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where countries may turn to China due to the U.S.’s unreliability.
- China’s military confidence may therefore increase, particularly regarding the Taiwan issue, as economic turmoil in the U.S. could weaken its military commitments in the Western Pacific.
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