Bitfinex Reports Positive Trends in Cryptocurrency Market
On the 28th, Bitfinex exchange released a report indicating that several indicators show the cryptocurrency market is developing positively, with Bitcoin demonstrating strong market resilience. However, the current market has not yet entered a state of full exuberance, and the next few weeks will be a critical period.
(Background: Data shows Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is “converging,” breaking away from US stocks, drawing renewed attention to its positioning as digital gold.)
(Context: International supermarket chain Spar initiates Bitcoin payments across its stores in Switzerland.)
Market Analysis Report Highlights Bitcoin’s Performance
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex published its latest market analysis report titled “Bullish Momentum Starting To Form” on the 29th, noting that Bitcoin has risen over 10% in the past week, significantly outperforming traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500.
The report emphasizes that Bitcoin has reclaimed the critical price level of $94,000, which not only serves as an important support point in the current market but is also the foundational level that supported Bitcoin’s historic highs in January, demonstrating Bitcoin’s strong market resilience.
Multiple Indicators Point to Optimism
According to the Bitfinex report, multiple indicators currently show that the market is on an upward trajectory. These include: Bitcoin’s recent breakthrough of the short-term holders’ cost basis level (approximately $92,900), which is a significant on-chain turning point that typically marks the transition of the market from a correction phase to a new bullish momentum. Additionally, positive signals in market structure include a rebound in the profit supply percentage indicator to 87.3%, reflecting an improvement in market health and enhanced investor profitability.
Furthermore, the Fed has recently relaxed regulations on crypto assets, retracting prior regulatory requirements on the US banking sector. This will promote innovation and streamline the processes for banks participating in cryptocurrency and dollar token activities. This move indicates a more supportive and adaptive regulatory attitude from the US towards the digital asset industry, injecting a dose of confidence into the crypto market.
However, Bitfinex also cautions that the current market has not yet entered a state of full exuberance, and the next few weeks will be critical. Whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum will determine if it can further challenge historical highs or face the risk of a pullback.
Negative Impact of Tariff Wars Begins to Show
On the other hand, the report also analyzes the current economic situation in the United States, pointing out that the impact of high tariff policies is gradually becoming apparent. Specifically, this includes:
Firstly, although initial jobless claims remain low and the unemployment rate is at 4.2%, there are signs of weakening confidence in the labor market. Wage satisfaction and minimum acceptable wage expectations have significantly declined, indicating heightened public concerns over long-term job security and wage growth.
In the real economy, durable goods orders surged in March due to a spike in demand for commercial aircraft, but core capital goods orders, an important indicator of business investment, have nearly stagnated, reflecting cautious attitudes among businesses amid tariff uncertainties. Companies have postponed significant investments, raising market concerns about a slowdown in economic momentum later this year.
Additionally, the US dollar has weakened due to declining market confidence in US economic leadership, significant downward revisions in GDP forecasts, and strong competition from Europe. Simultaneously, low consumer sentiment and the potential for Fed interest rate cuts may further accelerate the depreciation of the dollar. Lastly, the return of Japanese investor funds and interventions by the Bank of Japan add further variables to the dollar’s trajectory.
In the short term, whether the US-China trade war can ease and whether the Fed will cut interest rates will be crucial factors in determining whether Bitcoin can manifest its narrative as digital gold.
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