Global Economic Recession Risks Rise as Gold Prices Surge
Due to the escalation of U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflicts, the risk of a global economic recession continues to rise, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices, which have set 28 historical highs in just over four months.
(Background: Bitcoin’s favorable conditions are just around the corner: the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve report will be released in two weeks.)
(Supplementary Background: Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for four consecutive days, raising questions about whether institutional positioning represents “smart money” or a hidden “bull market trap.”)
According to the latest data from Trading View, since the beginning of this year, gold prices have demonstrated strong upward momentum, with spot gold prices having increased by a cumulative 26.6%, recently surpassing $3,500 per ounce for the first time. In just over four months, 28 historical highs have been recorded.
Market analysis indicates that global geopolitical tensions, monetary policy uncertainties, and the sustained demand for gold from central banks have collectively enhanced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Notably, amidst the escalation of U.S. tariff policies and intensified U.S.-China trade conflicts, investor concerns about the economic outlook have evidently become a key factor driving gold prices higher.
Wall Street Optimistic About Continued Surge in Gold Prices
In light of this backdrop, Goldman Sachs has recently raised its gold price forecast, predicting that by the end of 2025, the gold price could reach $3,700 per ounce, and in extreme cases, could approach $4,500.
JP Morgan also provided an optimistic forecast for future gold prices in its latest report. The report states that due to the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policy escalation and U.S.-China trade conflicts, the risk of global economic recession is continually rising. It is expected that gold prices will average $3,675 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025, with further increases anticipated to exceed $4,000 in the second quarter of 2026. JP Morgan emphasized in the report:
“The foundation supporting our prediction of gold prices moving towards $4,000 per ounce next year is the sustained strong demand for gold from both investors and central banks, with net demand expected to average around 710 tons per quarter this year.”
Increasing Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold
It is noteworthy that recent market data shows that the price correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market is weakening, while its correlation with gold is significantly strengthening. As another highly regarded safe-haven asset, Bitcoin is often referred to as “digital gold,” and is increasingly forming a closer price linkage with gold in the context of heightened global economic uncertainty.
Analysts point out that if gold prices continue to rise in line with JP Morgan’s predictions, Bitcoin may also benefit from similar safe-haven demand, further driving its price higher.
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