In optimistic scenarios, if BTC rises to over 300,000, ETH is expected to reach 10,000 USD.
This article is sourced from Trend Research and compiled, translated, and written by PANews.
(Background: Continuing to rise! Ethereum surged to 2,600 USD, with the ETH/BTC ratio increasing by 30% in three days)
(Additional context: Granting stETH holders “decision veto rights”! Lido’s new proposal may reshape the governance power structure of DeFi)
Trend Research as of April 24, 2025
Since the release of the report across the internet, ETH has risen from 1,800 USD to around 2,400 USD, amounting to a ~30% increase within a month. The initial prediction before the report was based on a starting point of 1,450 USD. As a hundred-billion-dollar asset, this presents a rare opportunity for significant short-term returns for large funds. The firm bullish stance was primarily due to: ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its status as a critical infrastructure in crypto remains unchanged; the substantial correction following significant short-term peaks (over a 60% drop in four months); the large scale of short positions in the derivatives market; and the significant increase in spot volume from the bottom to key support and resistance zones, alongside the continuous layout of traditional finance and gradual inflow of ETFs. Currently, our prediction for ETH is a long-term expectation of surpassing 5,000 USD. In optimistic scenarios, if BTC rises to over 300,000, ETH is expected to reach 10,000 USD, capturing long-term opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem.
1. Valuation Prediction for ETH
An important context for the new valuation of ETH is capturing the trend of integration between key digital assets and traditional finance. We note that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has opened the door for inclusion as a strategic reserve asset by various U.S. states following the approval of spot ETFs. It is gradually becoming a scale expansion of dollar assets and a strategic alternative to some extent, currently ranking sixth in global asset market value. The U.S. BTC spot ETF currently manages about 118.6 billion USD in assets, accounting for around 6% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. The trend of integration between crypto assets and traditional finance is now unquestionable. CZ stated in an interview in Dubai in May that Bitcoin’s price in this market cycle might reach between 500,000 and 1,000,000 USD.
ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its status as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance remains unchanged. Ethereum’s total DeFi TVL is approximately 60 billion USD, accounting for over 53% of the global DeFi market, with a stablecoin market cap of 124 billion USD, making up over 50% of the total stablecoin market cap. The total AUM of Ethereum ETFs is 7.2 billion USD, with BlackRock’s tokenized money market fund BUIDL investing around 2.7 billion USD in the Ethereum ecosystem, which accounts for 92% of its total assets.
ETH experienced a rapid decline to around 1,300 USD after three peaks at 4,000 USD in 2024. The all-time high (ATH) was over 4,800 USD. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that ETH’s price will touch 5,000 USD in this cycle:
- The imminent end of U.S. QT and a further start of interest rate cuts
- The new SEC ### may bring breakthroughs in tokenization on the ETH chain and staking-related legislation
- Management and route restoration of the ETH Foundation, maintaining a certain degree of infrastructure innovation
- A stable growth of the on-chain financial ecosystem
Under long-term optimistic forecasts, ETH is expected to challenge 10,000 USD in the new cycle, provided the following conditions are met:
- BTC rises above 300,000 USD
- ETH brings remarkable infrastructure innovations beneficial to DeFi
- U.S. institutions promote ETH as an important native venue for asset tokenization
- Demonstration effects drive global asset tokenization
2. Three ETH Ecosystem Projects Not to Be Ignored
1. UNI (Uniswap): The largest DEX protocol in the crypto market
Uniswap is the earliest and largest DEX protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of 4.7 billion USD and daily trading volume exceeding 2 billion USD, generating 900 million USD in revenue annually. UNI is fully circulated, with about 40% locked for governance. The current circulating market cap is 4 billion USD, with an FDV of 6.6 billion USD.
Currently, there is a certain decoupling between UNI’s tokenomics design and protocol revenue, as the revenue generated by the protocol is not automatically distributed to UNI token holders. UNI mainly serves as a governance token, allowing control over the use of the treasury through voting, which can indirectly have a positive effect on the price of UNI through governance proposals, such as the DAO’s decision in 2024 to repurchase 10 million UNI tokens.
The decoupling between protocol revenue and token earnings mainly stems from previous SEC risks regarding the classification of securities. Currently, as U.S. crypto regulation gradually loosens and becomes more standardized, UNI’s protocol distribution may have the potential for upgrades in the future. Recent major developments for Uniswap include the launch of Uniswap V4 and the Unichain expansion suite, along with the preliminary activation of the “Fee Switch” mechanism.
2. AAVE (Aave): The largest lending protocol in the crypto market
AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of 23 billion USD and generating 450 million USD in revenue annually. The token is 100% circulated, with a current market cap of 3.3 billion USD.
Similar to UNI, there is no direct dividend relationship between protocol revenue and AAVE, with influence exerted indirectly through governance. Recent major developments for Aave include the development of Aave V4, the cross-chain expansion suite for the native stablecoin GHO, and the promotion of the Horizon project for RWA business exploration.
3. ENA (Ethena): The largest synthetic stablecoin protocol in the crypto market
Since 2025, Ethena’s synthetic dollar USDe has become the third-largest USD-pegged asset in the crypto market, with an issuance scale second only to USDT and USDC, and USDe is the only synthetic stablecoin among them. In terms of revenue, Ethena is also a lucrative DeFi protocol, generating 315 million USD in revenue annually. ENA currently has a market cap of 2.18 billion USD, with an FDV of 5.6 billion USD.
Recently, Ethena has made comprehensive business progress: Ethena is collaborating with Securitize to launch the “Converge” blockchain network aimed at bridging traditional finance and DeFi, planning to introduce stablecoin products iUSDe for traditional financial institutions, integrating its stablecoin sUSDe into the Telegram application, and building an ecosystem based on its stablecoin sUSDe, including a perpetual and spot exchange Ethereal based on its own application chain and a on-chain options and structured products protocol Derive.
