Bitfinex Releases Latest Market Analysis Report: “The Return of the Bitcoin Bull Market”
On May 12, Bitfinex released its latest market analysis report titled “The Return of the Bitcoin Bull Market,” which pointed out that as long as the macroeconomic environment remains favorable, the upward trend of Bitcoin will be further strengthened, and Bitcoin is expected to challenge new highs. However, the uncertainties in the macro economy and policy also require investors to remain cautious at all times.
(Background: The US-China tariff cuts from “145% to 30%” have analysts optimistic about Bitcoin reaching $140,000)
(Context: Bitcoin being “scooped up” by governments: a new recognized wealth or concentrated risk?)
Recent Market Performance
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has seen a positive surge, with Bitcoin maintaining a steady position above $100,000 for several consecutive days, and various altcoins experiencing significant rebounds. Against this backdrop, Bitfinex released its latest market analysis report on May 12, detailing the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and the overall economic environment. Below are the key points from the report for readers to gain a deeper understanding.
Bitcoin Expected to Reach New Highs
The Bitfinex report first noted that Bitcoin has recently performed strongly, surpassing the performance of the stock market for several reasons:
- Macroeconomic Favorability: The easing of tariff tensions and a dovish turn in the Federal Reserve’s tone have led to an increase in market risk appetite, prompting Bitcoin to break through key price levels.
- Continued Capital Inflow: Over the past two weeks, ETF inflows exceeded $920 million, indicating an increase in investor confidence.
- Positive On-chain Data: The number of Bitcoins held at a loss has significantly decreased, with over 3 million Bitcoins returning to profitability, reflecting an improvement in market sentiment.
At the same time, Bitfinex believes that as long as the macro environment remains favorable, any short-term price pullbacks will be quickly absorbed by the market, further strengthening Bitcoin’s upward trend, with Bitcoin expected to challenge new highs.
Challenges in the Overall Economic Environment
The report also analyzed macroeconomic factors affecting the market, including:
- Cautious Federal Reserve Rate Policy: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in May, as rising inflation and increasing unemployment rates raised concerns about stagflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also emphasized that the economic outlook remains uncertain and requires more data to support subsequent policy adjustments. Although the market anticipates a potential rate cut in July, the Fed will still prioritize ensuring price stability and will respond cautiously to slowing growth.
- Trade and Labor Market Pressures: Although the US-UK trade agreement has reduced tariffs on some goods (such as UK cars and US agricultural products), the impact has been limited and has not resolved widespread trade challenges.
Progress and Challenges in US Cryptocurrency Policy
Finally, the report also mentioned the latest developments in the US cryptocurrency sector:
- State-Level Innovations: New Hampshire has become the first state in the US to allow investment in cryptocurrencies and precious metals, demonstrating a proactive attitude among state units towards the integration of digital assets.
- Stablecoin Legislation Stalled: However, the US Senate failed to pass the “GENIUS Act” with a vote of 48 to 49, with three senators not voting, and a motion for reconsideration has been submitted. This outcome highlights the divisions between the two parties on economic and innovation legislation, indicating challenges in advancing federal-level policies.
In summary, the recent rise of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market has injected confidence into the market, but at the same time, uncertainties in the macro economy and policy require investors to remain cautious at all times.
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