Bitcoin’s Chip Structure Shows Changes, LTH Cost Soars to $31,000, STH Has Realized Profit Reaching 90-Day Average +3 Standard Deviations, Market May Enter High Pressure Period.
(Background Summary: Trump Predicts New Round of Higher Tariffs in Two Weeks! Bitcoin Falls Below $103,000, Ethereum Drops Below $2,500)
(Background Supplement: Is PoS Safer? Developer: Attacking Ethereum Costs Far Exceeds Bitcoin’s $10 Billion)
With Bitcoin Rising Above $100,000, the Behavior Patterns of Long and Short-Term Holders Are Quietly Changing, Some Investors Choose to Take Profits, and the Market May Face Short-Term Pressure Testing.
Diamond hands have started to sell, and LTH average costs have risen unusually.
On-chain data analyst Murphy pointed out today that the average cost of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin has rapidly increased recently, currently reaching about $31,000. This is caused by two reasons:
- Some short-term holders (STH) who entered at high positions are now turning into LTH, pushing up the overall cost;
- At the same time, some long-term chips with extremely low costs in the market are being sold, leading to an increase in average costs.
This phenomenon is quite rare; generally speaking, LTH are often “diamond hands,” tending to hold long-term and not exit easily, so average cost changes are usually stable. However, the current sharp fluctuations (with a 7-day cost change rate as high as 9.57%, far exceeding STH’s 0.4%) are worth pondering the reasons behind them.
In the past, high volatility among LTH occurred in August 2024 when the Japanese interest rate hike led to the liquidation of yen arbitrage trades, which also triggered significant actions from LTH due to panic selling caused by a black swan event. This time, Murphy believes that the underlying reason may indicate that some LTH believe the current price is at a phase high point and choose to gradually exit to take profits for hedging considerations.
STH Realized Profits Surge, Profit-Taking Pressure Intensifies.
Meanwhile, Glassnode’s latest weekly report indicates that short-term holders (STH) have seen a significant increase in realized profits in recent weeks. The realized profit value of STH has now reached +3 standard deviations of its 90-day average, reflecting an increase in short-term profit-taking behavior in the market.
However, Glassnode adds that if we review past market movements towards ATH, the strength of profit realization among STH typically reaches above +5 standard deviations. Currently, this extreme level has not yet been reached, indicating that the market still has room for further upward movement and has not shown clear signs of demand exhaustion.
In summary, observations from Murphy and Glassnode suggest that investors, whether long or short-term, are experiencing an increase in profit-taking behavior, signaling that if demand does not keep up, it may further trigger a price correction.
