JPMorgan Analysts Predict Strong Upside Potential for Bitcoin in Late 2025
JPMorgan analysts have indicated that due to the softening of gold prices and various structural bullish factors, Bitcoin will possess stronger upward potential in the second half of 2025. At the same time, CoinDesk analysts have pointed out that Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR) have recently issued bullish signals in sync, which may indicate that a major bullish trend is about to commence.
(Previous context: Ukraine is considering establishing a “Bitcoin War Reserve”, collaborating with Binance to promote legislation.)
(Background information: Cryptoquant analysts indicate that Bitcoin whales currently “prefer to hold” as opposed to retail investors, and the market has not yet overheated.)
Market Dynamics and Observations
The analysis team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JPMorgan, recently stated in an analytical report that the current price trends of gold and Bitcoin exhibit a “zero-sum game” relationship, where one party’s rise comes at the expense of the other:
From mid-February to mid-April, the rise in gold was at the expense of Bitcoin; however, in the past three weeks, the situation has reversed, with Bitcoin’s rise suppressing gold.
Based on this observation, JPMorgan expects this “zero-sum pattern” to continue until the second half of 2025, but emphasizes that Bitcoin has multiple bullish factors that may provide it with a relative advantage. The report states:
Overall, we expect the zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin that has persisted since the beginning of this year to continue into the second half of the year, but we lean towards the belief that specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies will allow Bitcoin to have greater upside potential compared to gold.
Bitcoin Bullish Factors Strengthening Momentum
In addition to the weakening gold prices, JPMorgan also points out that Bitcoin’s current upward momentum is supported by several structural bullish factors, including:
- Institutions Continuing to Accumulate Bitcoin: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet have recently continued to expand their Bitcoin holdings.
- Some U.S. State Governments Including Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset: New Hampshire has allowed up to 5% of state government assets to be invested in Bitcoin and gold. Arizona has established a digital asset reserve, obtaining funds through staking rewards and airdrops, while committing not to raise taxes.
- Maturation of the Crypto Derivatives Market: U.S. crypto exchanges are actively positioning themselves in the derivatives market: Coinbase has acquired Deribit, and Kraken has purchased NinjaTrader. Analysts believe that as the regulatory environment becomes clearer, these developments are expected to attract more institutional investors, enhancing overall market depth and confidence.
Therefore, with the weak gold prices and the aforementioned specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies, JPMorgan analysts believe Bitcoin will possess stronger upward potential in the second half of 2025.
CoinDesk Technical Analysts: Bitcoin and MSTR Showing Golden Cross
On the other hand, CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Omkar Godbole pointed out in his latest technical analysis report that Bitcoin (BTC) and Strategy (MSTR) have recently issued bullish signals in sync, which may indicate that a major bullish trend is about to initiate.
He described this situation as akin to “two mainstream newspapers simultaneously endorsing the same presidential candidate,” where such consistent backing often signifies widespread support. Similarly, when Bitcoin and MSTR, the publicly traded company holding the most Bitcoin, exhibit synchronized strengthening in technical indicators, it typically symbolizes a consensus in direction among the market and major institutional investors.
Specifically, the daily charts for Bitcoin and MSTR show that their 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 100-day SMA, forming what is known as a “golden cross.” This is regarded as an important indicator for confirming a short- to medium-term bullish trend, suggesting that the short-term trend has outpaced the long-term trend. Additionally, the golden cross for Bitcoin coincides with other indicators (such as MACD), indicating an increased probability of price upward movement.
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