Cryptoquant Analyst Darkfost Points Out Significant Differences in Trading Behavior Between Whales and Retail Investors
Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost noted that, based on observations of data from the Binance exchange, there are significant differences in trading behavior between whales and retail investors in the current Bitcoin market. Whales are more inclined to continue holding Bitcoin rather than selling, which may provide potential support for Bitcoin’s future price increase.
(Background context: Silicon Valley venture capitalist Tim Draper: Bitcoin will send the dollar into history within ten years, stablecoins are also doomed to the fate of inflation)
(Further background: Why is the “digital gold” narrative underestimating the true value of Bitcoin?)
Whale Behavior Tends to Be More Prudent
Darkfost detailed his analysis of fund flow data from the Binance exchange, indicating that since Bitcoin resumed its upward trend in April, the inflow of funds deposited by whales into Binance has been continuously declining. For instance, on April 12, the 30-day cumulative inflow of funds from whales was nearly $5 billion, but by May 14, this figure had dropped to around $3 billion, demonstrating that whales prefer to hold rather than sell.
In contrast, the inflow of funds from retail investors during the same period increased from nearly $12 billion to $15 billion, indicating a rise in retail participation. However, Darkfost emphasized that the current level of retail inflow is still far below the historical peaks (ATH) recorded at $20 billion and $27 billion.
Furthermore, Darkfost pointed out that the total inflow of funds across all investor categories remains significantly below the levels seen during market peaks, which could imply that Bitcoin has not yet reached an overheated state and still has room for further increases.
He also further analyzed historical data, emphasizing that following the trading behavior of whales tends to be a wiser strategy than following retail investors, and the holding tendency of whales may indicate market optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future performance.
Analyst: Trump’s Fiscal Expansion Policy Benefits Bitcoin
Meanwhile, Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, provided another bullish perspective on Bitcoin on the X platform. He noted that U.S. bonds declined when U.S. CPI data showed weakness, indicating that the fiscal policy under the Trump administration might be similarly expansionary as during Biden’s term, which would benefit risk assets including Bitcoin:
Bonds down on a weak CPI day is telling.
We’re back to 2023-2024 thinking in the markets.
Tariffs are all going to be walked back and will be a non-story.
Fiscal expansion like crazy.
Everyone plays to win the midterm. Debt and deficits be damned.
It’s great for Bitcoin,…pic.twitter.com/WCpZhJVBAF
Bitcoin Fluctuates Around $103,000
As of the time of this report, Bitcoin is currently priced at $103,592 and continues to fluctuate within the range of $101,000 to $105,000. If the inflow of funds into the market does not continue to grow, it may remain within this range for a longer period.
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