Bitcoin Reaches New Historical High This Morning
Bitcoin has reached a new historical high this morning, with analysts determining that for BTC to achieve a truly meaningful and sustained breakthrough, trading volume should remain high for several days, demonstrating a simultaneous rise in both volume and price.
(Previous update: Breaking News — Bitcoin breaks historical high, OKX spot reaches $109,457! The cryptocurrency market is off by 0.2%.)
(Background supplement: Standard Chartered Bank: Institutions are aggressively buying MicroStrategy (MSTR) to position themselves in Bitcoin, with BTC projected to reach $500,000 by 2029.)
Bitcoin Writes Another Historical High!
This morning (22nd), after 7 AM, Bitcoin successfully touched a price of $110,804 in the OKX market, adding brilliance to the annual Bitcoin Pizza Day.
Bitcoin is about to enter an acceleration phase.
According to a report by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has now entered a breakthrough range that historically accompanies sustained explosive growth.
The Bitcoin Quantile Model indicates that the current market exhibits a “heat” level similar to the peaks following Trump’s election and the high propelled by the spot ETF in Q4 2024. The model employs quantile regression on a logarithmic scale to depict Bitcoin’s price phases, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in a “transition zone,” a critical juncture before entering the “acceleration phase.” (The diagram below is somewhat similar to the Bitcoin rainbow chart, but the application methods differ.)
The article states that once Bitcoin enters the “acceleration phase,” it could trigger the next wave of price increases. The model’s forecasts suggest that Bitcoin could gradually reach price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months.
Additionally, the anonymous analyst apsk32 believes that a Bitcoin price exceeding $200,000 by 2025 is a completely “reasonable” expectation, noting a significant increase in Bitcoin’s status compared to gold since April.
At the same time, data analysis shows that the Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin and gold has recently converged. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, further suggests that investors could adopt a 4:1 allocation ratio of gold to Bitcoin for composite investments.
Trading Volume Becomes the Key to Breakthrough
However, we know that last night, due to concerns about the new tax reform under Trump exacerbating the U.S. government’s fiscal deficit (if passed, the U.S. would expand the deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next decade), the bid rate for the U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction surged to 5.047%, reaching a new high since the second half of 2023, accelerating capital withdrawal from the stock market, with all four major indices declining.
Cryptocurrency researchers analyze that for Bitcoin to achieve a truly meaningful sustained breakthrough, trading volume should ideally remain high over several days, demonstrating a simultaneous rise in both volume and price, which will serve as a critical indicator of whether a sustained breakthrough can be achieved.
Currently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract significant capital, with only two days of net outflow since May, and the amounts being small, continuously providing support for the bulls and undergirding prices.
Additionally, CryptoQuant data indicates that on May 21, retail investor demand accounted for only 3.2%, far below the 30% level seen on December 2024, indicating that current retail participation has not yet peaked, potentially bringing new funds for continued upward movement.
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