ARK Invest Recently Demonstrates Timing Skills in Cryptocurrency Stocks
ARK Invest’s recent trading activities in cryptocurrency stocks showcase exceptional timing skills, contrasting sharply with the long-term “diamond hands” strategy. By accurately buying and selling stocks such as Coinbase and Circle, they have realized profits exceeding $200 million within two months. This article is based on a piece by Prathik Desai and compiled, translated, and written by Foresight News.
(Background: The “Queen of Stocks,” Ark Invest, announces Bitcoin valuation model: $500,000 per coin by 2030.)
(Additional context: ARK Invest has sold Circle stocks worth approximately $51.7 million at a cost basis of only 10%.)
Over the past few months, I have been tracking ARK Invest’s daily trading activities related to cryptocurrency companies. This American fund management firm oversees several ETFs and a venture capital fund. Their trading strategy reveals an interesting phenomenon: how they adeptly time their moves in this seemingly unpredictable arena.
One operation might be coincidental, two perhaps intuitive, but ARK’s cryptocurrency trading demonstrates an unusual sense of timing. This is intentional rather than a passive reaction.
In just June and July, through trading Coinbase and Circle stocks, they gained over $265 million in profit.
Upon closer observation, ARK is withdrawing funds from exchanges and trading platforms, shifting towards infrastructure, asset reserves, and other areas.
Recent trades by ARK provide insight into how one of the most watched institutional investors optimizes returns for its cryptocurrency investors through rapid and often precise timing, contrasting sharply with the “diamond hands” narrative prevalent in the cryptocurrency sector, and revealing a more complex sophistication.
On June 5, 2025, Circle, the largest compliant stablecoin issuer, went public on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at an issuance price of $69. As a cornerstone investor, ARK purchased 4.49 million shares through its funds, totaling approximately $373 million.
On June 23, Circle’s stock price peaked at $263.45, implying a market cap of about $60 billion, equivalent to 100% of its then-assets under management (AUM). This surge may have been driven by optimistic market sentiment regarding the future of stablecoins, as investors attempted to estimate Circle’s forward revenues at ten times its current AUM. However, compared to traditional asset management valuations, this appeared excessively inflated. For reference, BlackRock manages $12.5 trillion in assets but has a market cap of just over $180 billion, roughly 1.4% of its AUM. This was a signal for ARK.
Daily trading documents indicate that as Circle’s stock price surged, ARK systematically sold its shares through multiple funds.
ARK began selling off before Circle’s stock price peaked, ultimately selling approximately 1.5 million shares (33% of total holdings), cashing out about $333 million during the price’s parabolic rise. This realized over $200 million in profit compared to when ARK initiated its position, with a return rate of 160%.
ARK’s interest in popular IPOs extends beyond this.
Last week, they purchased 60,000 shares on Figma’s IPO day. The San Francisco-based design software company disclosed in SEC filings that it holds $70 million in Bitcoin ETFs and has been approved to acquire an additional $30 million.
Figma’s stock price surged over 200% on its IPO day, closing at $115.50, a 250% increase. The following day, Figma’s stock rose another 5.8%.
Recent trades by ARK concerning Coinbase further reveal its systematic profit-taking pattern.
As of April 30, 2025, ARK held 2.88 million shares of the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. Subsequently, they systematically took profits by the end of July.
At the same time, as Bitcoin reached a historic high of over $112,000, Coinbase’s stock price also rose, momentarily surpassing $440, marking its all-time high. On July 1, ARK sold $43.8 million worth of shares; on July 21 (the day Coinbase’s stock peaked), ARK reduced holdings worth $93.1 million through three funds. From June 27 to July 31, ARK sold a total of 528,779 shares (about 20% of total holdings), worth over $200 million, with an average selling price of $385 per share. In contrast, ARK’s weighted average cost of acquiring Coinbase over four years was about $260, generating profits exceeding $66 million.
Over the past two months, Coinbase is no longer the top holding in ARK’s fund portfolio.
After the market closed on July 31, Coinbase’s disappointing second-quarter results led to a 17% stock price drop the following day, falling from approximately $379 to $314. On August 1 (the day of the drop), ARK bought $30.7 million worth of Coinbase stock.
These trades are not isolated incidents but part of a strategic shift, reallocating funds from the overheated cryptocurrency exchange ecosystem to areas that have just begun to garner widespread attention.
While selling Coinbase stock, ARK also reduced holdings in its competitor Robinhood. These reductions coincide with ARK’s substantial investment in BitMine Immersion Technologies, dubbed the “Ethereum version of MicroStrategy.” Led by Wall Street veteran Tom Lee, BitMine is establishing an Ethereum reserve, aiming to hold and stake 5% of the total Ethereum supply.
On July 22, ARK invested $182 million in BitMine through a block trade. However, they did not stop there, systematically buying on each significant pullback, accumulating over $235 million in just two weeks.
These transactions indicate that ARK is moving from cryptocurrency exchanges and payment companies toward the so-called cryptocurrency infrastructure sector. While Coinbase and Robinhood profit from people’s cryptocurrency trades, BitMine profits from directly holding cryptocurrencies. Both methods can capitalize on the cryptocurrency’s growing popularity, but they carry different risk characteristics.
Exchanges benefit from market volatility and speculative behavior. When cryptocurrency prices fluctuate sharply, trading activity increases, and exchange revenues rise, but this is cyclical. In contrast, reserve-type companies like BitMine directly benefit from rising cryptocurrency prices; if Ethereum rises by 50%, BitMine’s assets will also increase by 50%, independent of trading volume or user behavior. Even without significant capital appreciation, staking Ethereum online can yield stable income.
However, high returns come with high risks: reserve-type companies also face direct downside risks. When Ethereum prices decline, BitMine’s asset values will proportionally decrease, raising the beta of the reserve strategy (risk coefficient).
ARK’s trades reflect their conviction in cryptocurrencies: cryptocurrencies are transitioning from speculative assets to a more mature state, closer to permanent financial infrastructure. In such a world, holding underlying assets may be more valuable than owning the platforms for trading those assets.
The interesting aspect of these transactions lies in their precise timing. They sold off during Circle’s spectacular rise until it peaked; they capitalized on a 250% increase in Figma’s IPO; they sold at Coinbase’s peak and reinforced their position after its disappointing results; they bought into BitMine during multiple pullbacks.
ARK’s methodology blends traditional value investing principles with precise timing: when Circle’s market cap reached 100% of its AUM, it may have been overvalued; when Coinbase fell 17% in a single day due to disappointing results, it may have been undervalued. ARK seems to also time trades around predictable events (earnings releases, regulatory decisions, market volatility).
There is also a more critical question: why do these stocks have such significant premiums relative to their underlying assets? Circle’s market cap once equaled its managed assets, and BitMine’s stock price is also significantly inflated compared to the value of its held Ethereum. This premium largely exists because most investors cannot easily purchase cryptocurrencies directly; even if they can, the experience of depositing and withdrawing on platforms for retail investors is not smooth enough. If you want to allocate Ethereum in your retirement fund to capture its appreciation, buying stock in a company that holds Ethereum is far easier than purchasing Ethereum directly.
This creates structural advantages for companies holding crypto assets. ARK’s trades indicate they are well aware of this reality: buy when the premium is reasonable, and sell when the premium is excessive.
ARK’s strategy demonstrates that investing in cryptocurrency stocks is not merely a simple buy-and-hold approach, especially when aiming to optimize returns. For anyone attempting to track ARK’s cryptocurrency trades, merely knowing what they bought is insufficient; understanding their reasons for buying, potential selling timing, and what targets they will shift toward next is essential.
