Despite data showing PumpFun is at a disadvantage against LetsBonk and the overall Memecoin market is shrinking, the author believes that PumpFun’s strategy is perfect. They are preparing for a bear market and may emerge victorious in the next market cycle. This article is based on a piece by miya, organized, translated, and written by PANews.
(Background recap: Weekly revenue surpassing PumpFun, how to value Hyperliquid (HYPE)?)
(Background information: Pump.fun founder Alon’s live stream flop: questioned for “not daring to speak throughout,” triggering a series of declines for $PUMP)
First of all, this article is not an attack on LetsBonk. The Bonk team, led by Tom, has performed exceptionally in capturing market share in the Memecoin space, making it not worthwhile for PumpFun to launch a counterattack. LetsBonk has already won the memecoin war and will continue to dominate this field.
PumpFun is winning. You might initially think the author is foolish. First, let’s look at some data that reflects a situation exactly contrary to PumpFun’s success.
LetsBonk currently leads in token deployment by about 3.7 times. It has gained 65.1% market share in just one month. The number of projects graduated from LetsBonk is approximately 7.8 times that of PumpFun. PumpFun issues significantly more tokens per graduated project than LetsBonk, making LetsBonk a more profitable trading platform.
All indicators and charts seem to show a disparity. So why is PumpFun winning? Let’s understand from a broader perspective why PumpFun’s strategy has been executed so perfectly thus far.
Memecoins are dying. They have been on a consistent decline since February 2025. Not only has PumpFun’s daily revenue decreased by 93.4%, but the overall market size of LetsBonk is also shrinking.
While the trading volume share may appear as follows:
The actual market size in which these two companies are competing is as follows:
Since the emergence of celebrity coins, the risk appetite for Memecoins on Solana has been steadily decreasing. Large-scale sell-off events like “MELANIA” and “LIBRA” have accelerated this trend.
It can be said with certainty that Memecoin trading is no longer what it used to be. To analyze in detail why it is actually worse than it appears, one can refer to previously published series of articles. The Memecoin supercycle has entered its final stages.
For companies hoping to survive in the long term, Memecoins are not an ideal investment choice. Memecoin trading has evolved from being just an ordinary casino to a high-risk venue that depreciates your money.
“Oh, but they’re already addicted, so let’s extract more funds from the traders.”
Even the most foolish gamblers have abandoned Memecoins, as they know they will ultimately incur losses. Savvy market participants have developed highly advanced tools and have such a well-informed information flow (FNF, insider coins) that ordinary market participants will be left further behind in the future. This situation is irreversible; the insider advantage will gradually increase, and the capital available to ordinary traders will gradually decrease.
So why is PumpFun still winning?
Ask yourself this question: if you were Alon (CEO of PumpFun), what would you do?
Option 1) Use your substantial cash reserves to buy back $PUMP.
Well, let’s assume he takes out $200 million now and gradually buys PUMP over the next 31 days, using the generated fees for a 100% buyback. Is everything solved now? No, not at all. Memecoins are still on a downward trend. PumpFun still bears the heavy brand image of a “Memecoin launch platform.” Buying back PUMP will not restore risk appetite to previous highs, nor will it provide the liquidity that “investors” need. It might boost market sentiment in the short term, but it cannot revive Memecoin. This is a massive cash injection in a declining market that cannot be sustained long-term.
Option 2) Airdrop $PUMP to users and create new liquidity.
Similarly, the only effect of this action is to inject funds into a shrinking market and declining market share. PumpFun may risk giving away some money they can no longer recover, and worse, this capital could flow into the hands of competitors.
Alon has executed the established strategy almost perfectly thus far. PumpFun must evolve, but spending resources on a dying Memecoin is futile.
Now let’s look at the current situation.
LetsBonk has invested most of its expenses into BONK and GP, with no large cash reserves. Insiders hold significant shares in projects like BONK and USELESS, which they monetize through launch board exits. Regardless of what happens next, they may attract attention, but they are cash-strapped.
PumpFun may be losing this Memecoin war, but the market’s expectations for this field’s future are so low that winning this war is actually worse than losing it.
Crypto researcher rasmr has shared some insights on how PumpFun should develop, with a key point being to build a $200 million project (like ChillHouse) on PumpFun. This is actually an entirely unnecessary investment, further confirming that PumpFun is competing for a shrinking market. PumpFun may have given up on the idea of making Memecoins great again; otherwise, they wouldn’t go a week without tweeting or abandon competing with LetsBonk.
While I do not have specific knowledge of the current internal situation at PumpFun, it is clear what Solana Labs is preparing: ICM. In the upcoming bear market cycle, utilities will return to their chains.
Whatever happens next, PumpFun is financially well-prepared to stay ahead of any other participants.
While it seems ridiculous to think that Alon would give up on PumpFun.
PumpFun has such a mature brand, excellent resource connections within Solana, and a clear company structure. You wouldn’t just give up a well-functioning company because you cashed out a certain amount; nobody would do that. This notion is so untenable in terms of business development and is merely propagated by those degen gamblers accustomed to cashing out events. While Alon may not reinvest all profits into the business, he will strive to successfully conquer the next Solana market in the upcoming bear market cycle.
In the upcoming bear market, $PUMP may be one of the coins worth holding long-term, and if one believes that this cycle can last another year, purchasing at the current price could yield decent returns. The author holds PUMP spot as a hedge, in case the judgment that this cycle is about to end turns out to be incorrect, and personally believes that very few liquid altcoins are more suited for this bet than it.
