International investment bank TD Cowen stated yesterday (2nd) that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in order to strengthen its position as a cryptocurrency regulatory body, is under “political pressure” to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF before the deadline of January 10th.
(Prior Summary:
Grayscale updates GBTC prospectus with SEC, Bloomberg analyst pours cold water: lack of key information, transformation to spot ETF may be delayed)
(Supplementary Background:
Bitcoin spot ETF “variable”? BlackRock has not yet been notified by the SEC, FOX analyzes key approval time)
The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has entered a critical period, and investors are concerned about the development of the cryptocurrency market in the next two weeks. TD Cowen, the international investment bank, stated yesterday (2nd) that the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF before the deadline of January 10th due to “political needs”.
SEC needs to strengthen its position in cryptocurrency regulation
According to Jaret Seiberg, the head researcher at TD Cowen, the SEC’s decision to “approve” this move is due to political pressure. Before Congress considers creating comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation, the SEC needs to strengthen its position as a cryptocurrency regulatory body.
On the other hand, according to TD Cowen’s analysis, if the SEC refuses to approve the Bitcoin spot ETF, it may face lawsuits from issuers and there is a risk of losing the case. TD Cowen points out that considering the SEC’s previous defeat in the Grayscale case, the SEC will try to avoid similar events from happening again. This means that the SEC may take a more cautious approach in deciding whether to approve the Bitcoin ETF to avoid legal challenges and unfavorable outcomes.
Further reading:
Bitcoin spot ETF gets green light? SEC Chairman Gary Gensler: Will review applications with reference to the “successful outcome” in the Grayscale case
With only one week left until the deadline of January 10th, the SEC needs to decide whether to accept or reject the applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs from companies such as ARK Investment, 21Shares, BlackRock, and VanEck. TD Cowen’s analysis team holds an optimistic attitude towards this.
Attention drawn to Republican-led bills
The United States is in an important period of transformation in cryptocurrency policies. In addition to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Bitcoin ETFs, the past year has also focused on two key bills that are led by Republicans and were passed by the House Financial Services Committee in July.
The first bill aims to regulate stablecoins at the federal level, while the other bill takes comprehensive regulatory measures for the overall structure of the cryptocurrency market.
According to TD Cowen’s analysis, during the so-called “lame duck” period (the period between the election and the inauguration of a new government), there is still a chance for the cryptocurrency market structure bill to be passed. Patrick McHenry, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, would like to complete this work before leaving office, which increases the possibility of the bill being passed during his term. TD Cowen points out that if the cryptocurrency market structure bill cannot be passed during the current session, the stablecoin bill will become McHenry’s backup plan.
Related Reports
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If I were a spot ETF issuer, I would donate 1% of the revenue to BTC developers! Morgan Creek founder: Market share guarantees the first place
Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin spot ETF with “cash subscription” will hinder more financial institutions from entering.