Matrixport released two research reports on January 2nd and 3rd, which sparked controversy due to conflicting viewpoints. Many people questioned whether the platform was manipulating the market with malicious intent, taking advantage of the expected approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the SEC.
(Background information:
BTC plummets! Matrixport: SEC will not approve any spot ETF in January, causing Bitcoin to drop by 20%.)
Contents:
Is Matrixport bullish or bearish?
January 2nd: “Bitcoin Spot ETF to be Approved, BTC Will Rise to $50,000”
January 3rd: “Why SEC will Reject Bitcoin Spot ETF Application Again?”
Bloomberg Analyst: No signs indicating ETF rejection
Community accuses Matrixport of market manipulation
Wu Jihan clarifies: Matrixport report represents independent analyst views
The probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Bitcoin spot ETF in January, as judged by multiple analysts, is above 90%. However, Matrixport’s report released in the evening of January 3rd stated that the SEC will not approve any ETF in January, causing Bitcoin to significantly pull back to around $36,000 to $38,000.
As a result, BTC experienced a sharp drop within hours, plummeting from the $44,500 level to $40,750 at one point, marking the most severe decline in months. This led the community to accuse Matrixport of spreading misleading information and even questioned the possibility of market manipulation.
Is Matrixport bullish or bearish?
In fact, the suspicion of market manipulation by Matrixport does not seem unfounded, as just the day before (January 2nd), Matrixport expressed great optimism about the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the SEC, with a target of $50,000 in January. Let’s take a look at the differences between the two consecutive prediction reports released by Matrixport:
January 2nd:
“Bitcoin Spot ETF to be Approved, BTC Will Rise to $50,000”
Institutional investors, who were previously bearish, are expected to increase their Bitcoin holdings in early 2024 to avoid missing out on the upward trend.
The approval time for the Bitcoin spot ETF may be earlier than market expectations, and this unexpectedly early approval could further drive BTC’s rise.
The ETF approval will not be a “sell the news” event, as the Bitcoin spot ETF will make Bitcoin a legitimate asset for institutional portfolios.
The halving cycle, combined with the U.S. election, will continue to drive Bitcoin’s rise.
Overall, Bitcoin is expected to reach $50,000 in January.
Matrixport report on January 2nd, bullish on Bitcoin. Source: Matrixport
January 3rd:
“Why SEC will Reject Bitcoin Spot ETF Application Again?”
Currently, the requirements of the SEC for a Bitcoin spot ETF have not been fully met, so the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF applications in January and will delay them until the second quarter of 2024.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler holds a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, believing that they are not subject to strict regulation. Therefore, from a political perspective, Gensler is unlikely to quickly change his attitude and embrace Bitcoin. The SEC’s five-member voting committee, dominated by the Democratic Party, will also not vote in favor of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the short term.
Once the SEC rejects the ETF, Bitcoin will experience a short-term plummet to around $36,000 to $38,000 (a decrease of about 20%).
If there is no information about any approved Bitcoin spot ETFs by January 5th, investors should immediately buy put options on Bitcoin or directly short it.
Matrixport report on January 3rd, predicting no approval of ETF in January. Source: Matrixport
Releasing two reports with completely opposite short-term positions within 24 hours, it’s not surprising that the community is extremely angry. The intense volatility over the past 24 hours has led to the liquidation of over 200,000 positions.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas emphasized that, although Matrixport’s report claims that the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF in January, he has not received any information about the rejection of ETF proposals from the SEC.
To verify the arguments in Matrixport’s report, Balchunas actively consulted Markus Thielen, the author of the report, about the sources of the information. Thielen subsequently clarified that the report purely represents his personal views and does not cite any specific sources.
Source: X
Community accuses Matrixport of market manipulation
In response to Matrixport’s significant change in analytical reports over two consecutive days, combined with the price reaction, many people in the community questioned Matrixport and believed that it was manipulating the market.
Francesco Madonna, CEO of Fundhelios, expressed on X platform that he believes Matrixport’s two reports have a 100% intention to manipulate the market.
Another user named Water Junkie Cat also posted on X, stating that the Bitcoin crash last night was caused by the report released by Matrixport.
Several community members directly criticized Markus Thielen, the author of the report, with one saying, “He should go to jail directly for market manipulation.”
Wu Jihan clarifies: Matrixport report represents independent analyst views
As the situation escalated, Wu Jihan, co-founder of Matrixport, responded on X platform:
Wu Jihan also emphasized that in the long run, a Bitcoin spot ETF will eventually be approved by the SEC, attracting new funds. The current volatility and the possibility of the first Bitcoin spot ETF launching in January are not important.
Subsequently, in the early morning of today, Wu Jihan posted again, stating:
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