Bitcoin Halving Countdown: 100 Days Left! Looking back at the previous three halvings, they have indeed been able to boost the price of Bitcoin. Will the upcoming fourth halving do the same? Analysts suggest that it may still require overall monetary and fiscal policy coordination…
With the successful launch of Bitcoin spot ETF, another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is the upcoming fourth halving, estimated to occur in mid-April this year. According to the latest data from Bitcoin Block Half, as of the deadline, there are approximately 100 days left until the Bitcoin halving. At that time, the Bitcoin reward per block will decrease from the current 6.25 coins to 3.125 coins.
Reviewing the past halving trends, the background for Bitcoin halving becoming a bull market narrative lies in the increased scarcity, which is believed to contribute to the rise in price. However, based on statistics, previous halvings usually don’t immediately trigger a surge in Bitcoin price, but rather take several months to a year and a half to ferment:
First Halving: In 2012, approximately 12 months after the peak (November 2013), the price surged by 8,450%.
Second Halving: In 2016, approximately 17 months after the peak (December 2017), the price surged by 290%.
Third Halving: In 2019, approximately 18 months after the peak (November 2021), the price surged by 560%.
Is every Bitcoin price surge really related to halving? Coinbase analyst David Duong previously wrote a report summarizing the background of the three previous Bitcoin halvings, pointing out that the halving events coincided with some important historical monetary and fiscal policy occurrences:
In 2012, the Federal Reserve began its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by purchasing mortgage-backed securities and long-term government bonds.
In the second half of 2016, Brexit caused fiscal concerns in the European Union and the UK, leading to an increase in BTC purchases.
In 2020, central banks and governments around the world implemented unprecedented fiscal stimulus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which boosted global liquidity.
Therefore, besides focusing on the supply and demand dynamics of BTC, investors also need to have a clear understanding of the market background and the impact of the US dollar, interest rates, and global liquidity.
VanEck analyst: Bitcoin will reach a new high at the end of this year. In December last year, VanEck analysts estimated that the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF combined with the halving event will stimulate Bitcoin to reach a historical high in the fourth quarter of this year.
From the chart below, it can be seen that VanEck defines the fourth cycle of Bitcoin as 2022-2025 and divides it into three scenarios (Low, Moderate, Bullish). In the Bullish scenario, VanEck estimates that Bitcoin will reach a peak of $160,000.
However, whether history will repeat itself ultimately requires time to prove. Investors are reminded to manage risks properly.
Further reading:
How high can Bitcoin fly in 2024? This institution boldly claims “500,000 US dollars”.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to reach $1 million in 2026, Hong Kong to become a significant player in the crypto world.
Female stock guru with 25% of her wealth “betting on BTC”: Bitcoin to skyrocket to $1.5 million by 2030.
Female stock guru calls for action: Ark Bitcoin spot ETF approved this week, don’t underestimate the institutional buying power.