Glassnode’s latest weekly report indicates that the prolonged oscillation of Bitcoin prices between $60,000 and $70,000 is likely to be broken soon. Multiple indicators suggest that market volatility has compressed to uncommon levels, foreshadowing imminent large-scale price fluctuations.
Bitcoin dipped to a morning low of $57,800 today, marking its lowest point in two months and a retracement of nearly 22% from its mid-March peak of $73,738. This shakeout has left many bullish investors disoriented.
According to Glassnode’s recent weekly report, Bitcoin’s greater volatility may not be over yet. The report notes a decrease in volatility across various timeframes, with the realized volatility (calculated every 30 days) showing negative figures over one week, two weeks, one month, three months, six months, and one year. This suggests that volatility may increase soon.
Additionally, Glassnode evaluated the percentage change between the highest and lowest prices in the past 60 days to assess market volatility. According to this indicator, Bitcoin’s market volatility has compressed to rare levels, a phenomenon typically seen after long periods of consolidation and before significant market fluctuations.
Further reinforcing their volatility assessment, Glassnode highlighted the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which evaluates the total sum of investors’ realized profits and losses relative to realized market value. The current low Sell-Side Risk Ratio indicates a balanced market to some extent, potentially hinting at increased volatility in the near term.
Despite Bitcoin setting a two-month low and the Fear & Greed Index shifting from neutral to fear at 44, Glassnode maintains that a significant portion of Bitcoin investors remains profitable, as indicated by the MVRV ratio currently at 2.04. This level typically characterizes the “euphoric” phase of a bull market.
In summary, while Bitcoin faces recent lows and increasing market caution, Glassnode’s analysis suggests that the bull market may not yet be over, emphasizing ongoing potential for significant price movements ahead.