Do not use the excuse of too many people participating in airdrops as a reason for laziness. This article, titled “The Midcurve Airdrop Fallacy,” is sourced from an article by HUMBLE FARMER ARMY RESEARCH and has been compiled, translated, and written by 深潮.
Table of Contents:
Introduction
Cognitive Dissonance
Conclusion
Introduction:
What psychological barrier prevents us from gaining free profits? Currently, airdrops have become a hot topic in the cryptocurrency community, and many people participate in them to achieve rapid asset appreciation at low cost. However, after every large-scale airdrop, there are always people complaining about the unfair distribution of airdrops on crypto Twitter, which leads them to stop participating in airdrops. However, this falls into a fallacy. Those who complain about airdrop distribution are still the minority, and participating in airdrops is still profitable.
It seems that everyone is discussing how to participate in airdrops, so how can we blame them? Compared to paying a $50 gas fee to exchange assets on the Ethereum mainnet, I see people staking $SOL on Jito and turning $50 into $10,000. This motivates new participants to learn about self-custody and on-chain DeFi, which can be seen as a Trojan horse adopted by the cryptocurrency community.
We should celebrate this! Small investors finally have a way to achieve 10-100 times growth in account value without getting caught up in memes, leveraged trading, or chasing ups and downs. However, it seems that after every large-scale airdrop, we see many angry users on crypto Twitter complaining about the flaws in airdrop distribution mechanisms and no longer participating in airdrops.
Therefore, it seems that there are two groups of people on crypto Twitter:
1. Airdrop hunters who are excited about the lucrative profits from airdrops.
2. Those who complain about the unequal distribution of airdrops and claim that airdrops are not worth participating in as they will be diluted in the future.
But if you consider the psychological profile of the second group, they wouldn’t have participated in airdrops in the first place. They feel comfortable in their own field, trading cryptocurrencies on CEX, telling themselves that they don’t need to learn how to use chains. They complain about those who participate in airdrops and tweet to gain engagement, finding comfort in strangers on the internet agreeing with their views.
I have decided to call this phenomenon “The Midcurve Airdrop Fallacy.”
The Midcurve Airdrop Fallacy: There are far more people complaining about airdrops than actually participating in them. As a result, people subconsciously imply that airdrops will be diluted and choose not to participate in them, but in reality, their complaints do not dilute the airdrops they complain about.
Of course, this does not mean that future airdrops will not be diluted. In fact, we can see an increase in the number of stakers on Celestia. Similarly, we also see an increase in the number of wallets participating in airdrops on Solana. However, I do believe that people exaggerate the extent of dilution and underestimate the scale of all future airdrops. What makes an airdrop “diluted”? If we stake $500 of $TIA and receive a $500 airdrop, has it been diluted? Indeed, it has been diluted because it could have been a $1000 airdrop if not for those new stakers!
Firstly, I proudly admit that I am a midcurve myself. In fact, I consider myself an expert on this topic. So, when identifying people exhibiting midcurve behavior, I have some credibility. In reality, everything has a simple explanation: cognitive dissonance.
In the field of psychology, cognitive dissonance refers to the psychological discomfort a person experiences when they hold two contradictory beliefs or thoughts in their mind. When faced with something that contradicts their beliefs, ideals, and values, people often try to resolve the contradiction to reduce discomfort.
We subconsciously make suboptimal decisions in the market because we don’t want to make ourselves uncomfortable. Did your token double in value? Let’s sell half. Did your token drop 50%? Let’s wait until it breaks even before selling. The reality is that the market doesn’t care about your cost basis. We decide to sell profitable tokens because we fear a market downturn and a drawdown in profits, and we hold onto losing tokens because we fear admitting our investment mistakes.
The desire to avoid pain leads to midcurve behavior. People don’t want to start participating in airdrops because they don’t want to buy at the top of the $TIA. People don’t want to use Solana because they are used to Ethereum. “Airdrops will be diluted” is just an excuse people use to prove their laziness.
I believe that airdrops will be profitable in the coming months. I am also willing to accept that this viewpoint may be wrong. I’m not saying you should invest a significant amount of money into anything, but I strongly encourage people to at least give it a try.
Why not stake 1% of your portfolio on TIA? Why not move 1% of your portfolio to the Solana ecosystem and see what airdrop opportunities there are? I guarantee that by using these chains, you will learn more about Solana.
I bet that 90% of the people reading this article will roughly agree with my viewpoint. Unfortunately, only a few will take action because they are too lazy to download a new wallet and learn about a new ecosystem.
That’s why I’m not even worried about my airdrops being diluted because most people won’t take action.
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