According to historical data, Bitcoin usually performs poorly in June, but July brings a rebound that raises the temperature of the cryptocurrency market. The following are the key sectors worth noting in July. This article is sourced from the work of “雨中狂睡” and compiled, translated, and written by Foresight News.
Table of Contents:
1/ Ethereum S-class
2/ Layer1 (A-class), Layer2 (B-class), Layer3 (C-class)
Solana A-class
Avalanche B-class
Fantom B-class
3/ RWA A-class
4/ AI A-class
5/ Social, currently still a false proposition, currently rated C.
6/ Gaming, currently rated C. False proposition x2
Gm frens, here’s the outlook for July~ Let’s talk about the narratives that may be hyped in July and my personal ratings. (Note: S, A, B, C class represent the importance ranking according to my judgment)
The most important things in July are the ETH spot ETF and Mt. Gox. The market always reacts before the events. As the events approach, their impact on the market diminishes. This is also why people often say “Buy the Rumour, Sell the News”.
If history rhymes, ETH may have a similar performance to BTC after the ETF approval, but we also need to consider the overall macro environment and the impact of the US elections on the market.
However, I agree with Zhusu’s view on the “Sell the News” aspect. The market’s reflexivity, bro.
Regarding ETH Beta, I previously selected four coins: $ENS $ETHFI $TURBO $MOG. The price volatility of $TURBO and $MOG is significant, making them suitable for short-term trading, while $ENS has performed the best.
Regarding $TURBO, I will update my understanding: it has little correlation with ETH, so it will be removed from the list. The current list is: $ENS $LDO $PEPE $MOG $MKR ($MKR still has the narrative of splitting and renaming, with great protocol revenue / fundamentals).
Interested friends can refer to my previous tweet.
I have already talked about my views before. Solana currently only has one narrative, which is the memecoin casino. The catalyst for the ETF application, as well as Blink, Depin, Solana Mobile, and other narratives, still need time to verify.
In summary, Solana’s goal is mass adoption, but there is still a long way to go. Currently, the market’s demand for Solana is only for memecoin speculation.
Avalanche may launch some new activities, similar to the previous Avalanche Rush. “Proof of $AVAX Boost” will be converted to $S, as I have previously mentioned in a tweet. I don’t have much to share about Layer2, mainly focusing on the wealth effect of Basechain and farming opportunities on Arbitrum. However, there are not many opportunities to get involved in Layer2 tokens such as $ARB and $OP. At the same time, if the ZK narrative erupts, you know which target to choose 🙂
$ZK is the best meme of ZK.
Regarding Layer3 token $XAI, I will briefly discuss my views.
Currently, Xai Chain’s TPS has reached 104, ranking first in Ethereum Layer2 & Layer3. I have already explained this phenomenon in my previous tweet. In addition, on July 9th, $XAI will unlock approximately 200 million tokens (accounting for 71% of the current circulation) — this is a mega-unlocking event.
In a conspiratorial sense, could these two events be related? Will Xai use data manipulation to make price growth more reasonable? Everything is unknown. But I have included $XAI in my Watchlist, and once there is an unusual price change, I will intervene immediately.
I actually have high hopes for $DEGEN, but its price performance has been poor. So, I won’t elaborate on it here.
In conclusion, the price of Layer3 tokens mainly depends on catalysts and narratives, with not many real users (referring to $DEGEN, $DMT, and $WINR), short-term is greater than long-term.
$ONDO is the best target and closely related to what BlackRock is doing. Ondo and Ethereum are the main battleground for tokenization by BlackRock.
There’s not much to discuss about $FET $OCEAN $AGIX, the merger is about to end, and $WLD unlocking has already begun. If the rise of the sector depends on the release of external products/technologies, it is also short-term speculation. In the 30-day narrative strength comparison, AI tokens have the weakest price performance.
Data source:
Dune
Previously, I believed that Coinbase Smart Wallet would bring a wave of hype about Basechain, but ultimately, in this market sentiment, the overall performance of the Basechain ecosystem is not impressive, only $BRETT stands out. I made a big mistake in choosing coins this time.
Upon review, the market liquidity and sentiment are not enough to sustain a big breakout in the Basechain ecosystem. Perhaps only one or two coins will have outstanding performances. It’s not good to enter too early, so we can only monitor the chain’s upward momentum and enter on the right side.
Pixels Online is still performing strongly, but the price performance is poor.
The Beacon is not performing well — although related activities have driven the return of old players and the joining of new players, the sustainability is not good.
Mavia has launched Phase 2, you can refer to this tweet for details, but the market is not buying it⬇️
From the comparison of the strength of narrative tokens in the past 90 days, we can clearly see that the performance of gaming narratives in the previous quarter was not impressive (low IQ: the worst). I expect a reversal, but I won’t get involved at the moment.
Specific events in July can be seen in this chart⬇️
Regarding macro predictions, I recommend these two articles:
First article:
Analysis of Arthur Hayes’ Personal Views
Second article:⬇️
Related reports:
AMA Highlights: Unveiling the Bull Market Trump Card! How top institutions and analysts envision the second half of 2024
JZ Economic Weekly: The US dollar remains strong, the Japanese yen continues to be slaughtered, Solana ETF narrative ignited? The market is still filled with smoke…
Rich Dad’s Warning: Bitcoin ETF is a fake, buying real BTC is the way to go.