BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes Analyzes the Low Probability of the U.S. Mass Purchasing Bitcoin
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes conducted an in-depth analysis regarding the likelihood of the U.S. significantly purchasing Bitcoin reserves, examining two major aspects: fiscal difficulties and social perception, and concluded that the possibility is extremely low.
(Background Summary: Arthur Hayes: “Now” may be the last chance to buy Bitcoin below $100,000!)
Recently, discussions about the U.S. potentially expanding its Bitcoin (BTC) strategic reserves have intensified, especially with President Trump requesting a related report from the Treasury Department, which is expected to be submitted this week, sparking widespread speculation.
However, Arthur Hayes poured cold water on this notion. In a recent interview, he candidly stated that due to the continuously expanding national debt and the specific social image of Bitcoin, the likelihood of the U.S. government actively purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin on the open market is minimal.
National Fiscal Pressure Makes Bitcoin Purchases Difficult
Hayes believes that as a typical “deficit nation,” the increasingly severe fiscal situation in the U.S. constrains the possibility of actively purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin.
He pointed out that the aging U.S. population leads to increased social welfare spending, high defense expenditures, and rising national debt interest due to the high-interest environment, resulting in a national debt exceeding $34 trillion and a structurally expanding fiscal deficit.
Under such massive fiscal pressure, he argues that it is difficult for the government to mobilize significant funds to purchase Bitcoin on the open market, and such expenditure would be challenging to justify to taxpayers and the public.
However, in the face of enormous debt, Hayes anticipates that the U.S. Treasury will have to issue more national bonds to raise funds. To ensure that these bonds can be absorbed by the market, the Treasury might even seek regulatory relaxation, such as allowing banks to be exempt from capital requirements for national bonds to encourage institutions like banks to purchase its debt.
He emphasized that this potential liquidity injection, while not traditional quantitative easing (QE), would be more beneficial for the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin, rather than the government directly purchasing Bitcoin to boost the market.
Social Image and Political Resistance: Who Wants to Stand with “Bitcoin”?
In addition to economic considerations, Hayes also raised significant social and political obstacles. He described how some Bitcoin investors are often viewed as having a specific social image, referred to as “Bitcoin Bros,” questioning whether any “duly elected” government officials would be willing to take the political risk of associating government policy or asset allocation with such a potentially controversial image.
In public debates regarding fiscal responsibility, using funds obtained through “printing money,” i.e., raising funds through issuing national bonds to purchase Bitcoin, would face tremendous political resistance, making it an extremely unpopular policy.
Hayes contrasted this with the nearly 200,000 Bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government, which primarily come from assets seized during criminal investigations, such as the famous Silk Road darknet case and the Bitfinex hacking incident.
He believes that without such asset confiscation, the likelihood of the U.S. government significantly expanding its Bitcoin reserves through open market purchases is very low.
Different Voices in the Market and Future Outlook
Despite Hayes’ cautious stance on the U.S. actively purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin, other differing opinions and forecasts exist in the market. Some members of the cryptocurrency community believe that any form of “strategic reserve” action by the U.S. government, even if merely symbolic, could send a strong signal to other countries worldwide, potentially igniting a wave of global central banks or sovereign wealth funds purchasing Bitcoin.
For example, Bitcoin reserve initiatives are currently being launched across various U.S. states (although the Arizona governor recently vetoed a BTC reserve bill passed on third reading this week, breaking the first instance of a state incorporating Bitcoin into official reserves).
Moreover, some opinions suggest that the U.S. government could raise funds by selling its seized alternative coins (Altcoins) and then use those funds to purchase Bitcoin, achieving a form of fiscally neutral purchasing behavior, thereby reducing direct reliance on treasury funds.
However, despite Hayes’ cautious outlook on whether the U.S. government will significantly purchase Bitcoin, he still anticipates that the price of Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, entering a bull market peak in 2026-2027, and eventually hitting $1 million by 2028.
